Mild-Applewood
0x1ba1a6c054f73916ac5871cafed1547904ae948b
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-5.6K
Realised
$-1.4K
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?
2977 shares @ 93.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-2.8K
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?
2421 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 27, 2026$0.00
$-4.84
- YES
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?
2195 shares @ 58.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-1.3K
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?
1898 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 27, 2026$0.00
$-37.01
- NO
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 41.0 on March 13, 2026?
181 shares @ 60.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-109.56
- YES
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand?
100 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-14.00
- NO
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026?
12 shares @ 56.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-6.79
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 1PM ET
10 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 16, 2025$0.00
$-4.90
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 11AM ET
10 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 16, 2025$0.00
$-4.90
- UP
Solana Up or Down - October 30, 1PM ET
10 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 30, 2025$0.00
$-4.90
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYExact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand?$14.36Jun 16, 01:53 UTC
- TRADESELLUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$486.00Mar 22, 02:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 22?$80.06Mar 21, 13:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 22?$86.01Mar 20, 00:39 UTC
- REWARD$1.82Mar 19, 09:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026?$6.79Mar 18, 02:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 15?$0.00Mar 17, 12:21 UTC
- REWARD$0.49Mar 17, 00:16 UTC
- REWARD$0.37Mar 16, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$390.00Mar 15, 08:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 22?$622.63Mar 15, 08:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 22?$455.00Mar 15, 08:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 22?$334.55Mar 15, 08:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 15?$2.70Mar 15, 03:49 UTC
- REWARD$0.38Mar 15, 00:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 15?$264.52Mar 14, 14:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 15?$45.92Mar 14, 14:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 15?$52.48Mar 14, 13:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 15?$1.98Mar 14, 12:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 15?$309.30Mar 14, 12:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $186.75
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 27, 14:31 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 16, 01:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.