Wild-Muscatel
0x1bbd4be39595b8a2ba03895f38c3f471b4673bed
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.1K
Total PnL
$-6.2K
Realised
$-34.11
Win rate
40%
42 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on July 21?
104 shares @ 48.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$104.06
$53.47
- YES
Chicago Air Quality Index below 100 by July 21, 2026?
100 shares @ 79.0¢·now 82.0¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$82.05
$3.05
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on July 22?
122 shares @ 57.2¢·now 56.5¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$68.92
$-0.84
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 22?
144 shares @ 48.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$62.63
$-6.56
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 21?
60 shares @ 63.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$59.96
$22.01
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on July 22?
114 shares @ 56.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$57.56
$-6.27
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on July 22?
108 shares @ 56.5¢·now 52.5¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$56.62
$-4.31
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 22?
122 shares @ 47.1¢·now 44.5¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$54.29
$-3.23
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 22?
100 shares @ 57.0¢·now 51.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$51.00
$-6.00
- NO
Lam Research (LRCX) Q4 China revenue mix <30%?
60 shares @ 67.7¢·now 55.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$33.30
$-7.30
Recent activity
- MERGEWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on July 22?$22.00Jul 22, 03:58 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on July 22?$7.00Jul 22, 03:55 UTC
- MERGEWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 22?$19.00Jul 22, 03:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on July 22?$3.29Jul 22, 03:52 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 22?$22.00Jul 22, 03:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 22?$12.16Jul 22, 03:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on July 22?$11.00Jul 22, 03:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 22?$12.98Jul 22, 03:43 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 22?$77.00Jul 22, 03:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 22?$40.04Jul 22, 03:33 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 22?$86.00Jul 22, 02:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 23?$0.12Jul 22, 02:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 22?$44.87Jul 22, 02:53 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 22?$21.00Jul 22, 02:45 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 23?$2.00Jul 22, 02:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 22?$8.19Jul 22, 02:39 UTC
- MERGEWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 23?$5.00Jul 22, 02:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 23?$1.10Jul 22, 02:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 23?$1.33Jul 22, 02:33 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on July 23?$5.00Jul 22, 01:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
40% win rate over 42 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 30/100.
42 closed markets, 40% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $6.70
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 01:08 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 03:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 42 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.