Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

181

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-13.8K

Realised

$-459.80

Win rate

156 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 181

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET
2291 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-65.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET
2000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026
$0.00
$-20.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET
2000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026
$0.00
$-4.25
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET
2000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-20.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET
1253 shares @ 47.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026
$0.00
$-600.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET
1200 shares @ 8.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026
$0.00
$-102.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET
1183 shares @ 21.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026
$0.00
$-250.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET
1088 shares @ 18.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026
$0.00
$-200.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET
1041 shares @ 48.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026
$0.00
$-500.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET
1002 shares @ 24.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026
$0.00
$-250.00

Recent activity

TAKER_REBATE$10.11Jul 13, 16:50 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET$777.39Jul 12, 07:55 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET$261.87Jul 12, 07:53 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET$1.3KJul 12, 07:50 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET$259.28Jul 12, 07:49 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET$261.20Jul 12, 07:49 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET$261.53Jul 12, 07:48 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET$105.25Jul 12, 01:08 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET$105.98Jul 12, 01:08 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET$6.00Jul 12, 01:04 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET$104.53Jul 12, 01:01 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET$668.07Jul 12, 01:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET$105.13Jul 12, 00:57 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET$104.62Jul 12, 00:56 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET$104.72Jul 12, 00:54 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET$104.76Jul 12, 00:52 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET$452.72Jul 12, 00:51 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET$166.67Jul 12, 00:48 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET$872.86Jul 12, 00:48 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET$15.00Jul 12, 00:46 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

56/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 156 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

156 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity40 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry33 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk35 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 39
Avg trade size: $72.00
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 12, 00:02 UTC
Last active: Jul 13, 16:50 UTC
Win rate sample: 156 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 10:44:50 UTC·src:Polymarket Data