Sophisticated-Blackbird
0x1bfcf4137b394967017a0882dd08d4849fca0478
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
11
Open notional
$12.12
Total PnL
$-4.07
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
5 shares @ 89.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.55
$-1.95
- NO
Will TikTok be banned before July?
2 shares @ 74.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$2.28
$0.59
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?
1 shares @ 67.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$1.49
$0.49
- NO
Will India invade Pakistan before July?
1 shares @ 80.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$1.25
$0.25
- NO
AOC announces senate run in 2025?
1 shares @ 85.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.18
$0.18
- NO
Mike Johnson out as Speaker by December 31?
1 shares @ 85.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.18
$0.18
- NO
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?
1 shares @ 87.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.15
$0.15
- NO
CHIPS Act repealed before July?
1 shares @ 96.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$1.04
$0.04
- YES
US defaults on debt in 2025?
40 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?
11 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMAny Dems convicted of voter fraud in 2025?$0.00Jun 24, 10:03 UTC
- REDEEMElon out of Trump administration before July?$0.00Jun 24, 10:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump lower tariffs on China by May 31?$0.00Jun 24, 10:03 UTC
- REDEEMTrump approval >40% on June 1?$0.00Jun 24, 10:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?$4.50May 10, 13:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump acquire Greenland in 2025?$4.04May 10, 12:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump approval >40% on June 1?$1.00May 10, 12:31 UTC
- REDEEMNo change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting?$0.00May 10, 12:24 UTC
- REDEEM10-year Treasury yield >4.3% Friday?$0.00May 10, 12:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be greater than $98000 on May 2?$1.22May 10, 12:22 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down on April 29?$0.00May 7, 18:55 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin above $94,000 on May 2?$0.00May 7, 18:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump acquire Greenland in 2025?$4.00Apr 29, 13:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin above $94,000 on May 2?$3.00Apr 29, 13:13 UTC
- TRADEBUY10-year Treasury yield >4.3% Friday?$1.00Apr 29, 13:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on April 29?$1.00Apr 29, 13:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be greater than $98000 on May 2?$1.00Apr 29, 13:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYJerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?$1.00Apr 29, 13:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYElon out of Trump administration before July?$1.00Apr 29, 13:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump lower tariffs on China by May 31?$1.00Apr 29, 13:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 22
- Avg trade size
- $1.60
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 29, 12:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 24, 10:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.