Luminous-Sir
0x1c0041fce73d7345b12b87798b3106039a12741d
Wallet digest
Activity score
45/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-6.5K
Realised
$-156.12
Win rate
38%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 4?
777 shares @ 10.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-82.40
- YES
Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?
759 shares @ 12.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$0.00
$-97.97
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET
635 shares @ 90.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$0.00
$-576.12
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET
441 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$0.00
$-8.82
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 7PM ET
431 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-4.31
- CELTICS
Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)
347 shares @ 46.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 26, 2026$0.00
$-159.56
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET
325 shares @ 31.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$0.00
$-102.66
- JOHNNY SPEEDS
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs Metizport (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #15 Playoffs
308 shares @ 65.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$0.00
$-200.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET
305 shares @ 64.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$0.00
$-197.40
- FUT ESPORTS
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage
290 shares @ 51.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$0.00
$-150.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET$1.02Jul 16, 06:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET$1.02Jul 16, 06:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET$5.11Jul 16, 06:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET$5.19Jul 16, 05:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET$5.21Jul 16, 05:55 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET$6.45Jul 16, 05:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET$5.13Jul 16, 05:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET$5.13Jul 16, 05:52 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET$8.91Jul 16, 05:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET$5.13Jul 16, 05:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET$5.14Jul 16, 05:46 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET$4.19Jul 16, 05:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET$5.19Jul 16, 05:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET$5.21Jul 16, 05:41 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET$9.08Jul 16, 05:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET$3.13Jul 16, 05:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET$1.04Jul 16, 05:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET$1.04Jul 16, 05:38 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET$24.59Jul 16, 03:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET$5.13Jul 16, 03:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
44/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
38% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $5.25
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 14, 17:34 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 16, 06:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.