Fabulous-Observatory
0x1c1c32b99e5dbbda34a72f68e9f433073728fd4d
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
16
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-72.82
Realised
$-2.81
Win rate
60%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET
54 shares @ 18.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$0.00
$-9.94
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
49 shares @ 9.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$0.00
$-4.79
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET
47 shares @ 16.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$0.00
$-7.62
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET
45 shares @ 8.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$0.00
$-3.99
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET
33 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET
30 shares @ 70.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$0.00
$-20.77
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET
12 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.99
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET
12 shares @ 67.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-7.91
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 20?
10 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- MAKER_REBATE$0.02Jan 24, 00:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET$1.00Jan 23, 10:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET$1.00Jan 23, 10:23 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$1.53Jan 23, 02:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$22.00Jan 23, 02:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$2.00Jan 23, 02:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$1.00Jan 23, 02:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$1.00Jan 23, 02:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$1.00Jan 23, 02:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$1.00Jan 23, 02:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$1.00Jan 23, 02:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$1.00Jan 23, 02:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$2.00Jan 23, 02:07 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET$5.15Jan 23, 02:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$2.00Jan 23, 02:05 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$2.02Jan 23, 02:05 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$3.15Jan 23, 02:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$1.85Jan 23, 02:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$2.95Jan 23, 02:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$1.00Jan 23, 02:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
60% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $2.23
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 22, 15:08 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 24, 00:08 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.