Reckless-Livestock-Binoculars
0x1c30a3f7d891bc06441c6531954438917c9cb668
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
119
Open notional
$199.86
Total PnL
$-489.01
Realised
$-8.52
Win rate
36%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 119- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
769 shares @ 26.0¢·now 17.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$134.62
$-65.38
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 3?
26 shares @ 49.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$26.28
$13.28
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 3?
10 shares @ 42.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$9.52
$5.52
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 4?
34 shares @ 23.8¢·now 22.5¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$7.57
$-0.43
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 3?
6 shares @ 69.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$5.79
$1.79
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on July 4?
11 shares @ 38.0¢·now 45.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$4.74
$0.74
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 4?
18 shares @ 22.2¢·now 23.5¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$4.23
$0.23
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 4?
10 shares @ 42.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$4.14
$0.14
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 4?
10 shares @ 28.0¢·now 20.5¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$1.98
$-0.72
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 4?
1 shares @ 75.9¢·now 72.5¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.96
$-0.05
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 4?$2.08Jul 3, 09:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 4?$2.80Jul 3, 09:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 4?$4.12Jul 3, 09:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 4?$1.76Jul 3, 09:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 4?$11.69Jul 3, 09:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 4?$4.16Jul 3, 09:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 4?$1.01Jul 3, 08:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 4?$8.88Jul 3, 08:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 4?$1.35Jul 3, 08:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 4?$5.24Jul 3, 08:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 4?$7.27Jul 3, 08:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 4?$13.76Jul 3, 08:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 3?$9.87Jul 3, 08:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on July 4?$4.12Jul 3, 07:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 4?$3.12Jul 3, 07:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 4?$10.46Jul 3, 07:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 3?$10.33Jul 3, 06:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 3?$4.06Jul 3, 05:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on July 3?$1.36Jul 2, 23:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 4?$11.22Jul 2, 22:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
36% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $5.03
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 1, 08:49 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 3, 09:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.