Informal-Spectacle
0x1c3464ecfa5c7234540e00557590e635919b6571
Wallet digest
Activity score
44/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
81
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-254.51
Realised
$-0.51
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 81- RAFAEL JODAR
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Luciano Darderi
1340 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.34
- YES
Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC end in a draw?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- ZDENEK KOLAR
Oeiras 4: Zdenek Kolar vs Hugo Dellien
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Henan FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC end in a draw?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Sagan Tosu win on 2026-05-16?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- JULIA GRABHER
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Jil Teichmann vs Julia Grabher
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- GRIGOR DIMITROV
Bordeaux: Martin Damm vs Grigor Dimitrov
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos end in a draw?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
497 shares @ 8.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-42.22
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 20:09 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$269.94Jul 20, 01:47 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 16, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 15, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 14, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 12, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:25 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 6, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 5, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 4, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 3, 00:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
7 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 7
- Avg trade size
- $17.02
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 3, 11:54 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 20:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.