0x1c3765cb169fb480117cb5e5954138e46f61a324
0x1c3765cb169fb480117cb5e5954138e46f61a324
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$346.33
Total PnL
$-888.83
Realised
$-3.39
Win rate
0%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?
33 shares @ 85.0¢·now 95.1¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$31.38
$3.33
- UNDER
Seattle Sounders FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 5.5
36 shares @ 88.0¢·now 86.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$30.96
$-0.72
- UNDER
St. Louis City SC vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 5.5
36 shares @ 86.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$30.78
$-0.18
- NO
Will Kensei Hirata finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Corales Puntacana Championship?
35 shares @ 88.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$29.23
$-1.57
- UNDER
Vålerenga Fotball vs. Aalesunds FK: O/U 5.5
32 shares @ 89.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$28.32
$-0.16
- NO
Will Lionel Messi win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
28 shares @ 90.0¢·now 93.3¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$26.11
$0.91
- NO
Will Ferran Torres score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
30 shares @ 87.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$25.94
$-0.46
- NO
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?
29 shares @ 87.0¢·now 88.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$25.52
$0.29
- NO
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Argentina?
28 shares @ 89.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$24.78
$-0.14
- NO
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?
28 shares @ 88.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$24.50
$-0.14
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. England: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?$23.90Jul 16, 08:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Argentina?$25.06Jul 16, 08:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?$8.76Jul 16, 00:13 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$10.00Jul 16, 00:10 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$1.07Jul 16, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lionel Messi win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$25.33Jul 15, 22:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rayan Cherki score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$22.61Jul 15, 21:40 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: Argentina (-1.5)$9.00Jul 15, 21:39 UTC
- REDEEMEngland vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5$10.00Jul 15, 21:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?$11.00Jul 15, 21:39 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: England 0 - 0 Argentina?$34.00Jul 15, 21:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?$24.79Jul 15, 20:53 UTC
- TRADESELLExact Score: FK Sutjeska Nikšić 0 - 0 Qairat FK?$9.99Jul 15, 20:52 UTC
- TRADESELLExact Score: England 1 - 0 Argentina?$9.99Jul 15, 20:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET$3.03Jul 15, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET$1.15Jul 15, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET$6.60Jul 15, 17:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET$1.15Jul 15, 17:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET$4.47Jul 15, 17:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET$1.17Jul 15, 17:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $7.18
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 15, 16:21 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 16, 08:41 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.