Firsthand-Fir
0x1c396aad162aa40976482f948b626719519c3252
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
13
Open notional
$0.70
Total PnL
$-84.23
Realised
$69.20
Win rate
100%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- YES
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?
45 shares @ 11.0¢·now 1.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.70
$-4.30
- YES
Israel withdraws from Syria before October?
381 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 1, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
NATO x Russia military clash in 2025?
189 shares @ 15.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-30.00
- YES
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?
125 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?
117 shares @ 30.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-35.13
- YES
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30?
71 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Ukraine hits Moscow by December 31?
66 shares @ 38.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2025$0.00
$-25.00
- YES
Ukraine hits Moscow by September 30?
56 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Israel strikes Iran by September 30?
53 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
NATO downs another Russian drone by September 30?
50 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?$6.63Oct 9, 14:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?$28.50Oct 9, 14:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYNATO x Russia military clash in 2025?$10.00Oct 8, 07:43 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?$31.43Oct 8, 07:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYNATO x Russia military clash in 2025?$5.00Sep 28, 10:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYNATO x Russia military clash in 2025?$5.00Sep 28, 10:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYNATO x Russia military clash in 2025?$10.00Sep 26, 13:35 UTC
- TRADESELLNATO x Russia military clash in 2025?$31.50Sep 26, 08:38 UTC
- TRADESELLNATO x Russia military clash in 2025?$2.21Sep 26, 08:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYNATO x Russia military clash in 2025?$28.39Sep 26, 08:04 UTC
- TRADESELLNATO x Russia military clash in 2025?$28.38Sep 26, 06:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYNATO x Russia military clash in 2025?$10.70Sep 26, 02:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother Russian incursion in Polish airspace by September 30?$2.00Sep 26, 02:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael strikes Iran by September 30?$1.00Sep 26, 01:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYUkraine hits Moscow by December 31?$25.00Sep 25, 13:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Syria security agreement by September 30?$2.00Sep 24, 18:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael strikes 3 different countries by September 30?$5.00Sep 24, 18:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?$5.00Sep 24, 18:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYUkraine hits Moscow by September 30?$5.00Sep 24, 18:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYNATO x Russia military clash in 2025?$10.00Sep 24, 18:33 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $13.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Sep 2, 17:00 UTC
- Last active
- Oct 9, 14:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".