Immediate-Machine
0x1c4cd350bce3cb791daf88ce2034de9b03318d85
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
9
Open notional
$1.3K
Total PnL
$150.63
Realised
$0.62
Win rate
75%
4 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?
942 shares @ 68.5¢·now 76.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$716.59
$71.13
- NO
Le Pen ankle monitor before French Presidential Election?
229 shares @ 63.9¢·now 83.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$190.02
$43.77
- YES
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?
400 shares @ 37.0¢·now 37.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$148.00
$0.00
- YES
Will François Asselineau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
539 shares @ 9.3¢·now 20.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$107.76
$57.41
- YES
Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by August 31?
1000 shares @ 6.0¢·now 5.8¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$58.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
747 shares @ 4.5¢·now 4.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$29.51
$-4.11
- YES
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?
119 shares @ 4.0¢·now 1.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.54
$-3.21
- YES
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?
22 shares @ 4.0¢·now 2.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.47
$-0.42
- YES
Will Darren Jones be in the Burnham cabinet?
27 shares @ 46.5¢·now 0.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.12
$-12.56
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?$46.03Jul 23, 01:26 UTC
- REWARD$2.14Jul 23, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?$148.00Jul 22, 23:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?$693.55Jul 22, 21:39 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$53.81Jul 22, 15:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$52.75Jul 22, 15:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$11.12Jul 22, 15:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$3.29Jul 22, 15:17 UTC
- REWARD$1.14Jul 22, 00:00 UTC
- REWARD$1.05Jul 21, 18:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$29.21Jul 21, 14:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$0.49Jul 21, 14:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$0.09Jul 21, 14:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$4.00Jul 21, 14:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$22.06Jul 21, 14:08 UTC
- TRADESELL0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?$40.48Jul 21, 13:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?$199.31Jul 21, 11:09 UTC
- TRADEBUY0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?$32.42Jul 21, 09:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?$180.38Jul 21, 08:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Wes Streeting be the next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026?$0.00Jul 21, 07:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 70/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $90.95
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 20, 08:32 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 01:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.