Winged-Mathematics
0x1c4f9fef7372795bbebf7e3283ce8d221c16e321
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
12
Open notional
$413.64
Total PnL
$-185.00
Realised
$-28.81
Win rate
25%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- NO
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
597 shares @ 50.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$307.50
$8.96
- NO
Will Inter Milan win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship?
56 shares @ 50.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp May 30, 2027$28.84
$0.84
- NO
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?
59 shares @ 50.0¢·now 47.5¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$28.13
$-1.48
- NO
Will Tayte Willows win the 2026 Cornwall-Meadowbank PEI Legislative Assembly by-election?
41 shares @ 65.0¢·now 53.5¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$22.02
$-4.73
- NO
Will M80 Win North America ACE Stage 3
22 shares @ 70.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$11.11
$-3.99
- YES
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
110 shares @ 13.0¢·now 9.3¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$10.25
$-4.00
- NO
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Runoff by at least 15%?
271 shares @ 6.0¢·now 1.1¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$3.12
$-13.15
- YES
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 16, 2026?
132 shares @ 25.3¢·now 1.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.72
$-31.75
- YES
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
49 shares @ 13.0¢·now 1.9¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.94
$-5.48
- NO
Will the announcers say "Noise" during the Jordan vs Argentina FIFA World Cup Match?
126 shares @ 59.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-74.32
Recent activity
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$56.84Jul 4, 01:25 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$50.00Jul 4, 01:24 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$4.22Jul 4, 01:19 UTC
- TRADESELLFed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?$41.59Jul 4, 01:10 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$2.63Jul 4, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$298.55Jul 4, 00:18 UTC
- REWARD$0.15Jul 4, 00:15 UTC
- REWARD$35.49Jul 4, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?$1.29Jul 3, 23:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?$3.15Jul 3, 23:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?$4.17Jul 3, 23:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?$1.00Jul 3, 23:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?$144.89Jul 3, 23:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tayte Willows win the 2026 Cornwall-Meadowbank PEI Legislative Assembly by-election?$13.38Jul 3, 20:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tayte Willows win the 2026 Cornwall-Meadowbank PEI Legislative Assembly by-election?$13.38Jul 3, 20:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?$77.99Jul 3, 18:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?$79.28Jul 3, 18:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$75.73Jul 3, 17:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?$152.05Jul 3, 16:52 UTC
- REDEEMSpain vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 2.5$0.40Jul 3, 16:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 71/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $38.77
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 2, 12:59 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 4, 01:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.