Far-Probability
0x1c50c2d1d691bc3aacc49ea9ca8a90a0027ed904
Wallet digest
Activity score
87/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
134
Open notional
$43.71
Total PnL
$-191.43
Realised
$9.54
Win rate
100%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 134- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?
38 shares @ 78.5¢·now 46.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$17.59
$-12.42
- YES
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?
36 shares @ 14.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.75
$-1.25
- YES
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
5 shares @ 71.3¢·now 74.6¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$3.49
$0.15
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?
24 shares @ 20.8¢·now 12.8¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$3.06
$-1.94
- YES
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?
6 shares @ 50.6¢·now 46.9¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$2.61
$-0.21
- YES
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?
11 shares @ 19.0¢·now 16.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.74
$-0.26
- YES
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?
60 shares @ 5.0¢·now 2.8¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$1.66
$-1.34
- YES
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 10.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.85
$-0.15
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in July?
48 shares @ 2.1¢·now 1.8¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.83
$-0.17
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in July?
125 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.6¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.75
$-0.25
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$30.26Jul 23, 15:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$40.56Jul 23, 15:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$17.52Jul 23, 14:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$20.27Jul 23, 14:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?$7.52Jul 23, 14:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$30.29Jul 23, 14:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$8.88Jul 23, 13:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?$5.16Jul 23, 12:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?$5.18Jul 23, 12:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$20.33Jul 23, 11:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?$39.53Jul 23, 11:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?$19.11Jul 22, 10:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$4.43Jul 22, 10:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?$10.11Jul 22, 10:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?$1.04Jul 22, 10:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in July?$1.04Jul 22, 10:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in July?$1.04Jul 22, 10:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?$27.33Jul 22, 10:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?$10.11Jul 22, 08:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?$5.17Jul 22, 05:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $8.18
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 18, 11:23 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 15:23 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.