Measly-Thunder
0x1c962c3f7f98a3edd85ddc1440b6c9da48fb1206
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
4
Open notional
$5.79
Total PnL
$-6.21
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Colorado Senate race in 2026?
5 shares @ 93.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$5.03
$0.03
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
4 shares @ 26.0¢·now 20.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.77
$-0.23
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 4AM ET
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Mayhem (Lady Gaga) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
24 shares @ 21.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill a dozen eggs cost between $2.50–2.75 in January?$10.26Feb 11, 21:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be 34°F or higher on February 6?$31.05Feb 7, 05:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be 34°F or higher on February 6?$22.00Feb 6, 06:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be 34°F or higher on February 6?$7.33Feb 6, 06:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 28-29°F on February 5?$25.00Feb 6, 06:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 28-29°F on February 5?$24.00Feb 5, 14:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate after the February Meeting?$24.61Feb 5, 14:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 4AM ET$1.00Feb 3, 10:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a dozen eggs cost between $2.50–2.75 in January?$10.00Feb 3, 06:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate after the February Meeting?$20.00Feb 3, 06:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the February Meeting?$2.63Feb 3, 06:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the February Meeting?$9.99Feb 3, 06:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the government shutdown last 7 days or more?$21.83Feb 2, 10:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the February Meeting?$2.00Feb 2, 09:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the February Meeting?$7.70Feb 2, 09:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Mayhem (Lady Gaga) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?$1.25Feb 2, 09:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the government shutdown last 7 days or more?$20.87Feb 1, 18:34 UTC
- TRADESELLUS government shutdown Saturday?$11.34Feb 1, 17:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the Colorado Senate race in 2026?$5.00Feb 1, 11:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$1.00Feb 1, 10:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
24 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 71/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 24
- Avg trade size
- $12.06
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 30, 22:02 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 11, 21:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.