Ample-Picnic-Subset
0x1c9985dd5ed1a02611fff2d0040b88b8700a7502
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$11.27
Total PnL
$-12.78
Realised
$0.09
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 in July?
5 shares @ 73.4¢·now 83.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$4.16
$0.48
- NO
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $224 in July?
5 shares @ 68.0¢·now 70.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$3.84
$0.14
- NO
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $380 in July?
3 shares @ 65.0¢·now 63.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$1.94
$-0.06
- YES
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $300 Week of July 13 2026?
11 shares @ 18.0¢·now 12.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$1.33
$-0.67
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 2AM ET
8 shares @ 64.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-4.94
- YES
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03?
3 shares @ 67.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-2.30
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET
2 shares @ 91.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-2.02
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET
2 shares @ 79.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - July 9, 1AM ET
2 shares @ 64.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 1AM ET
1 shares @ 74.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $300 Week of July 13 2026?$2.07Jul 14, 03:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$3.05Jul 14, 03:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $380 in July?$2.03Jul 14, 02:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $216 in July?$2.05Jul 13, 17:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 in July?$1.90Jul 12, 05:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $224 in July?$1.92Jul 12, 05:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$3.77Jul 12, 05:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $224 in July?$1.82Jul 11, 17:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 in July?$1.82Jul 11, 17:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $216 in July?$1.03Jul 11, 17:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?$4.74Jul 11, 16:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$2.46Jul 10, 21:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $2,000 in July?$2.45Jul 10, 21:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$3.86Jul 10, 18:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?$3.86Jul 10, 18:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,000 in July?$2.66Jul 10, 18:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $1,900 in July?$2.64Jul 10, 18:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $1,900 in July?$2.93Jul 10, 18:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?$2.95Jul 10, 18:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET$1.52Jul 9, 06:48 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $2.13
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 8, 09:20 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 03:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.