Murky-Differential
0x1ca1b436aedde0145939e5d0c6309a4013a674cb
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-18.00
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 6, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 6, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 30?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
US government shutdown Saturday?
45 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $80,000 on January 31?
11 shares @ 9.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
XRP Up or Down on January 31?
7 shares @ 14.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$0.00Jun 10, 13:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?$0.00Jun 10, 13:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?$1.00Feb 6, 15:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$0.24Feb 6, 15:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down on January 31?$1.00Jan 31, 15:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be less than $80,000 on January 31?$1.00Jan 31, 15:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of January?$0.30Jan 30, 22:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of January?$0.33Jan 30, 22:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?$1.00Jan 30, 22:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?$1.00Jan 30, 21:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$1.00Jan 30, 17:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of January?$1.00Jan 30, 17:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of January?$1.00Jan 30, 17:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?$1.00Jan 30, 17:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS government shutdown Saturday?$5.00Jan 30, 17:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?$6.00Jan 30, 17:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 30?$1.00Jan 30, 14:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?$0.86Jan 30, 14:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January?$1.00Jan 29, 23:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Biden" 7+ times during the announcement on Thursday?$1.16Jan 29, 23:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $1.80
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 28, 22:34 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 10, 13:52 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.