Shabby-Trowel-Reservoir
0x1cd2da1d25c07776dcc6bfee2c5589da2d98c304
Wallet digest
Activity score
56/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
43
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-860.64
Realised
$148.50
Win rate
64%
25 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 43- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on July 18?
1392 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$0.00
$-2.74
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 24?
800 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$0.00
$-14.28
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 20?
583 shares @ 43.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-253.62
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on July 23?
533 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.00
$-5.33
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 23?
526 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.00
$-4.88
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 20?
525 shares @ 9.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-49.68
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 19?
520 shares @ 15.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-79.24
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on July 19?
470 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.86
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 23?
403 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.00
$-21.36
- YES
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on July 19?
397 shares @ 28.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-112.65
Recent activity
- REFERRAL_REWARD$2.02Jul 31, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$2.47Jul 30, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$1.13Jul 29, 00:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on July 25?$147.05Jul 26, 05:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on July 25?$2.82Jul 26, 01:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on July 25?$129.63Jul 26, 00:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on July 25?$36.72Jul 25, 19:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on July 25?$36.24Jul 25, 19:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on July 25?$1.47Jul 25, 18:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on July 25?$10.43Jul 25, 18:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on July 25?$49.73Jul 25, 18:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 24?$179.23Jul 25, 05:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 25?$1.90Jul 24, 23:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 25?$6.00Jul 24, 22:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 25?$26.74Jul 24, 20:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 24?$13.99Jul 24, 19:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 24?$15.17Jul 24, 19:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 24?$0.12Jul 24, 19:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 25?$24.18Jul 24, 19:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 24?$7.94Jul 24, 18:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
47/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
64% win rate over 25 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 31/100.
25 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $24.64
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 00:39 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 31, 00:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 25 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.