0x1ce0455a6b51eaf17b8667acbca871dcf1f26895
0x1ce0455a6b51eaf17b8667acbca871dcf1f26895
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
18
Open notional
$38.50
Total PnL
$21.41
Realised
$11.29
Win rate
94%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 8PM ET
9 shares @ 57.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$9.01
$3.87
- NO
Will Trần Thanh Mẫn be the next President of Vietnam?
6 shares @ 97.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026$6.07
$0.15
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - January 30, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET
5 shares @ 18.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$5.22
$4.28
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - January 30, 4AM ET
5 shares @ 34.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$5.20
$3.43
- NO
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?
1 shares @ 96.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$1.30
$0.05
- NO
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election be between 66% and 68%?
1 shares @ 94.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$1.30
$0.07
- NO
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026?
1 shares @ 96.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.20
$0.05
- NO
Will Democrat Party (DP) finish in third place by number of seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?
1 shares @ 97.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$1.20
$0.03
- YES
Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami finish with the second most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?
1 shares @ 96.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 12, 2026$1.20
$0.05
- YES
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election be between 68% and 70%?
1 shares @ 97.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$1.19
$0.03
Recent activity
- REDEEMNATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026?$0.00Jul 9, 05:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?$0.00Jul 9, 05:00 UTC
- REDEEMNATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026?$0.00Jul 1, 07:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?$0.00Jun 21, 14:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?$0.00May 1, 08:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election be between 68% and 70%?$0.00Apr 25, 01:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trần Thanh Mẫn be the next President of Vietnam?$0.00Apr 25, 01:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the South African Reserve Bank make no change to the repo rate after the March meeting?$0.00Apr 24, 21:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?$0.00Apr 24, 21:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be less than 0%?$0.00Apr 24, 21:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election be between 66% and 68%?$0.00Apr 24, 21:00 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - January 30, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET$0.00Apr 24, 21:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Sanders" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?$0.00Apr 24, 20:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?$0.00Apr 24, 20:00 UTC
- REDEEMNothing Ever Happens: Elon Edition$1.13Apr 24, 20:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Schumer remain Minority Leader through March 31?$1.15Apr 24, 20:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami finish with the second most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?$0.00Apr 24, 20:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Democrat Party (DP) finish in third place by number of seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?$0.00Apr 24, 20:00 UTC
- REDEEMLoL: Shifters vs Fnatic (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season$5.00Apr 24, 20:00 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - January 30, 4AM ET$0.00Apr 24, 20:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
94% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
15 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 15
- Avg trade size
- $1.34
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 19, 23:02 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 9, 05:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.