Second-Incision
0x1cef72d5e8eeab71f210f49531916ba16758759e
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$36.12
Total PnL
$-784.53
Realised
$19.46
Win rate
48%
23 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
610 shares @ 2.1¢·now 3.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$18.62
$6.08
- YES
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?
570 shares @ 2.9¢·now 2.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$16.82
$0.13
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
91 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.68
$-0.32
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on March 13?
6363 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-11.04
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on February 7?
6110 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 7, 2026$0.00
$-10.12
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 19?
2169 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$0.00
$-8.14
- YES
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of February?
2000 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-77.65
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January?
2000 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-25.61
- YES
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina?
1755 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.00
$-8.40
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 27?
1645 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 27, 2026$0.00
$-7.67
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?$10.00Jul 24, 01:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$1.00Jul 23, 18:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$10.00Jul 23, 17:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?$17.44Jul 23, 15:51 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?$12.06Jul 22, 21:25 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?$14.42Jul 22, 21:23 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?$18.35Jul 22, 21:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$2.54Jul 22, 19:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?$6.26Jul 22, 18:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?$1.02Jul 22, 18:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?$9.78Jul 22, 13:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?$10.50Jul 22, 05:49 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?$10.55Jul 21, 18:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?$7.70Jul 20, 09:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?$12.00Jul 20, 09:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?$4.80Jul 20, 03:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?$4.81Jul 20, 03:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win on 2026-07-19?$1.94Jul 19, 21:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?$0.94Jul 19, 21:12 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?$1.01Jul 19, 21:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
40/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
48% win rate over 23 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
23 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $4.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 13, 17:27 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 01:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 23 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.