Annual-Former-Survivor
0x1cf169df887c8aca4d8afc83b1a37710b2756ca1
Wallet digest
Activity score
78/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
65
Open notional
$19.6K
Total PnL
$463.21
Realised
$-9.65
Win rate
18%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 65- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 August 10-16?
2900 shares @ 97.2¢·now 99.5¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$2.9K
$64.30
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August?
3000 shares @ 93.5¢·now 94.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$2.8K
$30.00
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in August?
2000 shares @ 94.4¢·now 98.8¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$2.0K
$87.08
- YES
Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of August 2026?
1500 shares @ 91.9¢·now 92.9¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.4K
$14.31
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 August 10-16?
990 shares @ 99.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$989.50
$7.43
- YES
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?
1021 shares @ 93.0¢·now 96.8¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$987.49
$38.69
- NO
Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?
990 shares @ 93.6¢·now 97.7¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$966.74
$40.10
- YES
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?
1000 shares @ 90.3¢·now 96.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$965.50
$62.40
- YES
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?
1000 shares @ 90.1¢·now 95.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$955.00
$53.80
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 August 10-16?
778 shares @ 85.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$777.69
$113.72
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?$7.30Aug 16, 22:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?$24.16Aug 16, 21:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alibaba be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?$4.00Aug 16, 21:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $60,000 August 10-16?$99.63Aug 16, 13:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of August 2026?$362.55Aug 16, 12:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of August 2026?$32.54Aug 16, 12:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of August 2026?$53.74Aug 16, 12:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of August 2026?$12.83Aug 16, 12:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?$29.92Aug 16, 12:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?$38.13Aug 16, 12:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?$4.88Aug 16, 12:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?$4.03Aug 16, 12:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$48.69Aug 16, 12:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$55.77Aug 16, 12:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$80.94Aug 16, 12:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$58.52Aug 16, 12:35 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 16, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August?$467.28Aug 15, 20:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $66,000 August 10-16?$982.63Aug 15, 20:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.25 and $1.50 on August 31, 2026?$11.85Aug 15, 20:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
18% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $147.76
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 14, 20:18 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 16, 22:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.