Polished-Good
0x1cf9e79f0c68a49052c4a434e4f4872fe0b76e4e
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
200
Open notional
$377.33
Total PnL
$-363.91
Realised
$-0.55
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 25?
29 shares @ 21.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$25.82
$19.69
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on July 25?
29 shares @ 20.9¢·now 45.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$13.13
$7.04
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 25?
30 shares @ 23.0¢·now 34.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$10.35
$3.35
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on July 25?
16 shares @ 43.0¢·now 62.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$10.09
$3.09
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on July 25?
21 shares @ 33.0¢·now 45.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$9.54
$2.55
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on July 26?
24 shares @ 29.0¢·now 36.0¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$8.69
$1.69
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 26?
27 shares @ 25.0¢·now 32.5¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$8.68
$2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on July 25?
22 shares @ 29.0¢·now 37.5¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$8.21
$1.86
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on July 26?
23 shares @ 31.0¢·now 35.0¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$7.90
$0.90
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on July 25?
28 shares @ 20.0¢·now 28.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$7.84
$2.24
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 25?$7.94Jul 25, 12:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on July 26?$1.68Jul 25, 12:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 26?$1.18Jul 25, 11:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 26?$1.35Jul 25, 11:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 26?$0.59Jul 25, 11:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 26?$0.59Jul 25, 11:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on July 26?$0.23Jul 25, 11:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on July 26?$1.37Jul 25, 10:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on July 26?$3.64Jul 25, 10:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on July 26?$0.23Jul 25, 10:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on July 26?$7.24Jul 25, 10:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 26?$2.59Jul 25, 10:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on July 26?$7.00Jul 25, 10:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 26?$0.26Jul 25, 08:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 26?$1.32Jul 25, 07:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 26?$5.68Jul 25, 07:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on July 24?$12.07Jul 25, 07:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 26?$1.78Jul 25, 07:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 26?$1.55Jul 25, 07:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 26?$1.55Jul 25, 07:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $3.28
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 25, 06:06 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 12:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.