Proud-Warmth
0x1cfd7bb97027af8047e56a4d714ccb922d0e254e
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
28
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-181.90
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 28- YES
Will Xi visit the US by December 31?
401 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?
333 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will Bryan Johnson say "Mushroom" 10+ times while tripping balls?
206 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in November?
204 shares @ 4.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 1, 2025$0.00
$-9.00
- YES
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?
200 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by January 31, 2026?
185 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Maduro out by November 30, 2025?
143 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Maduro visit the White House in 2025?
114 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-4.00
- NO
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $6 million?
105 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" at the Turkey Pardon on Tuesday?
104 shares @ 4.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 25, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYMaduro trial scheduled by January 31?$3.90Jan 6, 06:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYNicolás Maduro released from custody by January 31, 2026?$5.00Jan 4, 19:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYCilia Flores released from custody by January 31, 2026?$5.00Jan 4, 19:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYMaduro mugshot released by Monday?$5.00Jan 4, 19:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by December 28?$18.69Dec 28, 12:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by December 28?$5.00Dec 25, 10:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?$10.00Dec 25, 10:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $6 million?$20.00Dec 25, 10:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jimmy Kimmel be named in newly released Epstein files?$5.00Dec 24, 16:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025?$10.00Dec 24, 14:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025?$10.00Dec 24, 14:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spotify's top song on Christmas be 'All I Want For Christmas Is You'?$10.00Dec 24, 10:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Michael Jackson be named in newly released Epstein files?$66.67Dec 20, 14:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill the December 2025 FOMC decision result in no change with ≤2 dissents?$0.00Dec 11, 07:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the December 2025 FOMC decision result in a 25bp cut with >2 dissents?$10.00Dec 3, 14:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Maduro visit the White House in 2025?$4.00Dec 3, 08:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYJerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?$4.00Dec 3, 08:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?$2.00Dec 3, 06:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Franco Parisi endorse no candidate for President of Chile?$14.54Dec 1, 10:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the December 2025 FOMC decision result in no change with ≤2 dissents?$5.00Nov 30, 21:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $7.80
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 23, 23:20 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 6, 06:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.