Handy-Explanation
0x1d10f10e8f99308c48a6180af496b669544966b3
Wallet digest
Activity score
47/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
14
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-16.00
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $122,000 on September 17?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 17, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on September 17?
154 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 17, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?
143 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January?
125 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in January?
84 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
83 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $120,000 and $122,000 on September 17?
71 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 17, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
61 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?
43 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 17, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?$2.00Feb 5, 16:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January?$1.00Jan 18, 17:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January?$1.00Jan 18, 17:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $120,000 in January?$1.00Jan 18, 17:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?$2.00Dec 8, 09:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pope Leo XIV be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?$1.00Dec 8, 09:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?$1.00Dec 8, 09:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?$1.00Dec 8, 09:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?$1.00Dec 8, 09:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be greater than $122,000 on September 17?$1.00Sep 17, 11:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $120,000 and $122,000 on September 17?$1.00Sep 17, 11:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on September 17?$1.00Sep 17, 11:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?$1.00Sep 17, 11:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?$1.00Sep 17, 11:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
14 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 14
- Avg trade size
- $1.14
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Sep 17, 11:05 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 5, 16:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.