Thick-Warning
0x1d1c5aed79ce89a214803e19fe71841c99f558ff
Wallet digest
Activity score
42/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
22
Open notional
$16.67
Total PnL
$-1.5K
Realised
$-659.78
Win rate
0%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- NO
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03?
17 shares @ 60.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$16.67
$6.67
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 18?
805 shares @ 26.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-212.69
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?
760 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.52
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 28?
715 shares @ 26.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$0.00
$-188.91
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on March 18?
603 shares @ 26.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-159.72
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 9?
576 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.35
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on March 28?
575 shares @ 26.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$0.00
$-151.92
- YES
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on February 2?
533 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 2, 2026$0.00
$-1.60
- MAGIC
Magic vs. Grizzlies
29 shares @ 62.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-18.00
- FURIA
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs
16 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$0.00
$-7.98
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Egypt win on 2026-07-03?$10.12Jul 3, 11:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June?$110.11Jul 3, 11:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June?$110.00Jun 26, 11:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Yoo Dong-soo win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?$13.81Jun 26, 11:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solana dip to $70 in May?$96.67Jun 26, 11:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana dip to $70 in May?$96.58May 31, 08:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 44°C or higher on May 30?$10.77May 31, 08:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill gemini-3.1-pro-preview have the best AI model on May 30, 2026?$12.35May 31, 08:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30?$73.45May 31, 08:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30?$73.38May 30, 12:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29?$63.30May 30, 12:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29?$63.24May 29, 04:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 44°C or higher on May 30?$10.76May 29, 04:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 28?$73.99May 29, 04:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 28?$73.93May 28, 12:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Yoo Dong-soo win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?$13.80May 28, 12:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026?$0.00May 28, 12:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026?$87.72May 28, 12:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026?$86.72May 27, 12:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill gemini-3.1-pro-preview have the best AI model on May 30, 2026?$12.34May 27, 12:33 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
31/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 70/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $74.53
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 20, 11:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 3, 11:23 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.