Frizzy-Bait-Alphabet
0x1d2f783a56cbdbe00baf8fce01c0c867f47bacf8
Wallet digest
Activity score
92/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
15
Open notional
$2.4K
Total PnL
$104.79
Realised
$-6.47
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- NO
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
556 shares @ 90.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$502.78
$2.78
- NO
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
825 shares @ 24.3¢·now 37.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$309.24
$109.24
- NO
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
565 shares @ 53.1¢·now 52.5¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$296.53
$-3.47
- YES
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?
280 shares @ 71.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$280.30
$80.30
- NO
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
240 shares @ 41.7¢·now 93.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$222.87
$122.87
- NO
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
263 shares @ 76.0¢·now 79.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$207.89
$7.89
- NO
Iran leadership change by December 31?
260 shares @ 77.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$206.49
$6.49
- NO
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
211 shares @ 94.8¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$195.15
$-4.85
- NO
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?
261 shares @ 62.6¢·now 67.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$174.66
$11.46
- YES
Iran leadership change by September 30?
385 shares @ 13.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$36.54
$-13.46
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$100.00Jul 26, 07:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?$89.76Jul 26, 07:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$1.00Jul 25, 17:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYGustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by July 31?$4.01Jul 25, 17:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYGustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by July 31?$5.01Jul 25, 17:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYGustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by July 31?$5.01Jul 25, 17:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYGustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by July 31?$5.01Jul 25, 17:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYMiguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?$1.00Jul 25, 16:57 UTC
- TRADESELLIran leadership change by June 30, 2027?$150.33Jul 25, 16:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by September 30?$50.00Jul 25, 16:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by December 31?$200.00Jul 25, 16:27 UTC
- TRADESELLIran leadership change by December 31?$73.14Jul 25, 16:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?$200.00Jul 25, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?$100.00Jul 25, 16:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by June 30, 2027?$120.00Jul 25, 16:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$1.01Jul 25, 16:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYNATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$200.00Jul 25, 15:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by December 31?$76.32Jul 25, 15:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?$200.00Jul 25, 14:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$200.00Jul 25, 14:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 62/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $116.57
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 9, 16:52 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 26, 07:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.