0x1d3ae15003ce1ab45b01c1460ef9aeeced8ea983
0x1d3ae15003ce1ab45b01c1460ef9aeeced8ea983
Wallet digest
Activity score
42/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$13.64
Total PnL
$-9.4K
Realised
$-3.3K
Win rate
0%
121 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET
44 shares @ 47.0¢·now 31.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$13.64
$-7.04
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET
520 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-93.73
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET
440 shares @ 18.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-80.59
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET
400 shares @ 5.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-22.85
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET
288 shares @ 8.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-25.44
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET
280 shares @ 21.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-59.60
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET
248 shares @ 18.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-45.58
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET
240 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-57.59
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET
210 shares @ 51.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-108.76
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET
208 shares @ 8.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-17.44
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET$14.64Jul 14, 01:51 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET$0.00Jul 14, 01:51 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET$121.00Jul 14, 01:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET$1.95Jul 14, 01:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET$0.06Jul 14, 01:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET$1.60Jul 14, 01:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET$0.12Jul 14, 01:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET$0.62Jul 14, 01:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET$1.28Jul 14, 01:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET$1.87Jul 14, 01:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET$1.83Jul 14, 01:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET$1.87Jul 14, 01:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET$1.91Jul 14, 01:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET$1.83Jul 14, 01:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET$2.03Jul 14, 01:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET$2.89Jul 14, 01:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET$6.85Jul 14, 01:45 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$8.00Jul 14, 01:45 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$0.00Jul 14, 01:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET$7.05Jul 14, 01:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 121 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
121 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $4.98
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 14, 01:35 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 01:51 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 121 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.