0x1d5072ffc476e7bdc2642f7ef62858a4d97a5e9c
0x1d5072ffc476e7bdc2642f7ef62858a4d97a5e9c
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
115
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-41.20
Realised
$17.97
Win rate
68%
40 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 115- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 16?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on May 16?
745 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.49
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 18?
355 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.75
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on May 14?
265 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-0.53
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 15?
218 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.74
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 18?
184 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.47
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 16?
157 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-0.31
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 12?
156 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-0.47
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on May 14?
135 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-0.81
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on May 15?
115 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-0.34
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 20?$0.31May 18, 04:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 16?$0.01May 18, 03:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 18?$0.15May 18, 01:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on May 19?$1.05May 18, 00:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on May 19?$0.23May 18, 00:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 18?$0.25May 18, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 18?$1.05May 17, 22:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 18?$0.21May 17, 22:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 18?$0.10May 17, 22:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 18?$0.03May 17, 21:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 18?$0.20May 17, 21:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on May 17?$0.00May 17, 20:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be 88°F or higher on May 18?$0.40May 17, 19:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 18?$2.23May 17, 18:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on May 17?$0.20May 17, 17:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be 88°F or higher on May 18?$0.21May 17, 17:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 18?$1.05May 17, 17:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on May 19?$0.15May 17, 17:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 18?$0.04May 17, 16:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 19?$0.58May 17, 16:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
75/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
68% win rate over 40 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 22/100.
40 closed markets, 68% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.54
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 17, 04:47 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 04:47 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 40 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.