0x1dab6128f98f311cf57a9058f75f070f4e7f45af
0x1dab6128f98f311cf57a9058f75f070f4e7f45af
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
15
Open notional
$42.55
Total PnL
$-3.69
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- NO
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?
6 shares @ 78.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$5.22
$0.22
- YES
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
8 shares @ 61.0¢·now 58.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$4.77
$-0.20
- NO
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
9 shares @ 46.0¢·now 51.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$4.33
$0.42
- NO
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
10 shares @ 46.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$4.33
$-0.25
- NO
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?
7 shares @ 75.0¢·now 63.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$4.10
$-0.78
- NO
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
9 shares @ 46.0¢·now 42.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$3.83
$-0.32
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
8 shares @ 43.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$3.48
$0.04
- YES
Will Trump say "Hell" 2+ times during tribute to Lindsey Graham?
6 shares @ 21.0¢·now 44.5¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$2.67
$1.41
- NO
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
8 shares @ 37.0¢·now 33.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$2.65
$-0.28
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30?
3 shares @ 67.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$2.30
$0.43
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Hell" 2+ times during tribute to Lindsey Graham?$1.30Jul 25, 09:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during White House Correspondents Dinner?$0.00Jul 25, 08:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?$9.86Jul 25, 01:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $397.50 Week of July 20 2026?$0.00Jul 24, 22:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30?$1.87Jul 24, 21:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?$7.87Jul 24, 19:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?$0.00Jul 24, 14:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during White House Correspondents Dinner?$1.55Jul 24, 09:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$0.00Jul 24, 05:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?$3.26Jul 23, 21:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill the South African Reserve Bank hold at the July 2026 meeting?$7.67Jul 23, 15:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $320 Week of July 20 2026?$7.87Jul 23, 14:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Claude Opus model be released by July 22, 2026?$0.00Jul 23, 06:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?$0.00Jul 22, 05:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?$5.05Jul 21, 21:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?$0.00Jul 21, 18:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $320 Week of July 20 2026?$5.03Jul 21, 09:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?$5.03Jul 20, 21:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $397.50 Week of July 20 2026?$5.01Jul 20, 09:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Spain win on 2026-07-19?$0.00Jul 19, 22:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
24 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 24
- Avg trade size
- $2.94
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 13, 18:45 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 09:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.