Pesky-Subsidiary
0x1dd7f98ac88a0b4168a5d6a8378f2d7b2b7dd41b
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
24
Open notional
$122.67
Total PnL
$-50.71
Realised
$-40.97
Win rate
69%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 24- NO
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
54 shares @ 82.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$54.00
$9.72
- SYRACUSE ORANGE
Saint Joseph's Hawks vs. Syracuse Orange
31 shares @ 49.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 22, 2025$31.00
$15.81
- YES
Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28?
14 shares @ 35.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$14.00
$9.00
- YES
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 15, 2026?
5 shares @ 61.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$5.00
$1.95
- YES
Will USD reach 1.5M Iranian rials by January 31?
5 shares @ 58.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$5.00
$2.10
- YES
Will the United Hearts Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election?
4 shares @ 80.1¢·now 99.3¢·exp Dec 28, 2025$3.97
$0.77
- NO
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?
3 shares @ 80.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$3.00
$0.60
- NO
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026?
2 shares @ 56.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$2.00
$0.88
- YES
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in January 2026?
2 shares @ 27.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$2.00
$1.46
- NO
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?
2 shares @ 80.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$2.00
$0.40
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on January 16?$19.11Jan 16, 00:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Audit" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?$10.68Jan 16, 00:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill DoorDash report 900 million or more total orders in Q4 2025?$23.20Jan 16, 00:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31?$63.08Jan 16, 00:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Audit" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?$1.32Jan 16, 00:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on January 16?$18.69Jan 16, 00:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?$4.64Jan 16, 00:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the total number of TSA passengers for January 16 be between 2,400,000 and 2,500,000?$3.52Jan 15, 23:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in January?$2.52Jan 15, 23:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill DoorDash report between 875 million and 900 million total orders in Q4 2025?$15.40Jan 15, 23:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill DoorDash report 900 million or more total orders in Q4 2025?$7.41Jan 15, 23:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill DoorDash report 900 million or more total orders in Q4 2025?$8.40Jan 15, 23:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?$3.44Jan 15, 23:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?$6.84Jan 15, 23:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?$0.90Jan 15, 23:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?$1.44Jan 15, 23:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill DoorDash report between 875 million and 900 million total orders in Q4 2025?$16.06Jan 15, 23:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the total number of TSA passengers for January 16 be between 2,400,000 and 2,500,000?$6.48Jan 15, 23:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31?$1.10Jan 15, 23:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother critical Cloudflare incident by February 28?$3.60Jan 15, 23:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
69% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $9.57
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 15, 20:38 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 16, 00:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.