Thorny-Formula
0x1de8fdafafd6306819ae41cdf73f3bcbd822a31e
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
12
Open notional
$29.45
Total PnL
$-151.30
Realised
$-8.52
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- YES
Will Germany win on 2026-05-31?
22 shares @ 89.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$19.68
$-0.11
- YES
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
526 shares @ 1.9¢·now 1.8¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$9.74
$-0.26
- YES
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Jordan?
11 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.3¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.03
$-0.97
- OVER
Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5
7 shares @ 69.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.10
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET
1000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?
100 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET
98 shares @ 88.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-86.38
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET
63 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$0.00
$-9.39
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET
36 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$0.00
$-9.47
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET
21 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Germany win on 2026-05-31?$19.86May 31, 15:51 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET$16.48May 31, 15:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET$5.24May 31, 15:49 UTC
- TRADESELLCzechia vs. Kosovo: O/U 2.5$8.59May 31, 15:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYCzechia vs. Kosovo: O/U 2.5$6.65May 31, 14:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET$5.27May 31, 14:46 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET$5.49May 31, 14:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET$5.26May 31, 14:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$5.35May 31, 14:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$5.35May 31, 14:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$10.29May 31, 14:39 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET$0.00May 31, 14:38 UTC
- TRADESELLSwitzerland vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5$23.89May 31, 14:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$7.94May 31, 14:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET$5.30May 31, 14:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYSwitzerland vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5$20.10May 31, 14:01 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET$10.20May 31, 13:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET$5.32May 31, 13:52 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$7.39May 31, 13:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$5.19May 31, 13:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $9.75
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 13, 00:10 UTC
- Last active
- May 31, 15:51 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".