Smart Money

Will Southampton FC win on 2026-05-12?

Probability moved down 39.5pp in 24h with 2.4× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

• 24h Δ -39.5pp, 1h Δ -24.4pp
• Turnover 2.4× liquidity
• Spread 0.1¢

Open the market and check whether the move is event-driven (news landed), liquidity-driven (rebalance / orderbook drain), or noise on a thin spread. Treat as research, not entry. · sample: High

Starmer out by May 15, 2026?

Probability moved down 27.5pp in 24h with 10.7× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

• 24h Δ -27.5pp, 1h Δ -0.3pp
• Turnover 10.7× liquidity
• Spread 0.1¢

Open the market and check whether the move is event-driven (news landed), liquidity-driven (rebalance / orderbook drain), or noise on a thin spread. Treat as research, not entry. · sample: High

Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12?

Probability moved up 65.5pp in 24h with 16.4× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

• 24h Δ 65.5pp, 1h Δ 38.5pp
• Turnover 16.4× liquidity
• Spread 0.1¢

Open the market and check whether the move is event-driven (news landed), liquidity-driven (rebalance / orderbook drain), or noise on a thin spread. Treat as research, not entry. · sample: High

Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A

Probability moved up 83.5pp in 24h with 2.2× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

• 24h Δ 83.5pp, 1h Δ 11.5pp
• Turnover 2.2× liquidity
• Spread 0.1¢

Open the market and check whether the move is event-driven (news landed), liquidity-driven (rebalance / orderbook drain), or noise on a thin spread. Treat as research, not entry. · sample: High

Starmer out by May 31, 2026?

Probability moved down 40.5pp in 24h with 6.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

• 24h Δ -40.5pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp
• Turnover 6.0× liquidity
• Spread 1.0¢

Open the market and check whether the move is event-driven (news landed), liquidity-driven (rebalance / orderbook drain), or noise on a thin spread. Treat as research, not entry. · sample: High

Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?

Probability moved down 13.3pp in 24h with 3.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

• 24h Δ -13.3pp, 1h Δ -0.2pp
• Turnover 3.1× liquidity
• Spread 0.5¢

Open the market and check whether the move is event-driven (news landed), liquidity-driven (rebalance / orderbook drain), or noise on a thin spread. Treat as research, not entry. · sample: High

Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

Probability moved down 21.0pp in 24h with 8.9× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

• 24h Δ -21.0pp, 1h Δ -3.0pp
• Turnover 8.9× liquidity
• Spread 1.0¢

Open the market and check whether the move is event-driven (news landed), liquidity-driven (rebalance / orderbook drain), or noise on a thin spread. Treat as research, not entry. · sample: High

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Probability moved down 39.5pp in 24h with 6.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

• 24h Δ -39.5pp, 1h Δ -4.0pp
• Turnover 6.1× liquidity
• Spread 1.0¢

Open the market and check whether the move is event-driven (news landed), liquidity-driven (rebalance / orderbook drain), or noise on a thin spread. Treat as research, not entry. · sample: High

Will CA Osasuna vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw?

Probability moved down 26.5pp in 24h with 3.3× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

• 24h Δ -26.5pp, 1h Δ -26.5pp
• Turnover 3.3× liquidity
• Spread 0.1¢

Open the market and check whether the move is event-driven (news landed), liquidity-driven (rebalance / orderbook drain), or noise on a thin spread. Treat as research, not entry. · sample: High

Iran closes its airspace by May 15?

Probability moved down 6.0pp in 24h with 4.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

• 24h Δ -6.0pp, 1h Δ -0.5pp
• Turnover 4.0× liquidity
• Spread 1.0¢

Open the market and check whether the move is event-driven (news landed), liquidity-driven (rebalance / orderbook drain), or noise on a thin spread. Treat as research, not entry. · sample: High

CA Osasuna vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5

Probability moved up 47.4pp in 24h with 0.8× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

• 24h Δ 47.4pp, 1h Δ 54.4pp
• Turnover 0.8× liquidity
• Spread 0.1¢

Open the market and check whether the move is event-driven (news landed), liquidity-driven (rebalance / orderbook drain), or noise on a thin spread. Treat as research, not entry. · sample: High

Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-12?

Probability moved down 39.5pp in 24h with 0.7× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

• 24h Δ -39.5pp, 1h Δ -13.5pp
• Turnover 0.7× liquidity
• Spread 0.1¢

Open the market and check whether the move is event-driven (news landed), liquidity-driven (rebalance / orderbook drain), or noise on a thin spread. Treat as research, not entry. · sample: High

Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-12?

Probability moved down 33.5pp in 24h with 0.3× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

• 24h Δ -33.5pp, 1h Δ -17.4pp
• Turnover 0.3× liquidity
• Spread 0.1¢

Open the market and check whether the move is event-driven (news landed), liquidity-driven (rebalance / orderbook drain), or noise on a thin spread. Treat as research, not entry. · sample: High

Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros

Probability moved up 7.5pp in 24h with 0.6× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

• 24h Δ 7.5pp, 1h Δ 3.0pp
• Turnover 0.6× liquidity
• Spread 1.0¢

Open the market and check whether the move is event-driven (news landed), liquidity-driven (rebalance / orderbook drain), or noise on a thin spread. Treat as research, not entry. · sample: High

Will Southampton FC win on 2026-05-12?

Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

• Expires in -3h
• UMA status: proposed

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12?

Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

• Expires in -2h
• UMA status: proposed

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A

Expires in 2h. UMA dispute is active.

• Expires in 2h
• UMA status: proposed

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-12?

Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

• Expires in -4h
• UMA status: proposed

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner

Expires in 2h. UMA dispute is active.

• Expires in 2h
• UMA status: proposed

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-12?

Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

• Expires in -2h
• UMA status: proposed

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

CA Osasuna vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5

Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

• Expires in -2h
• UMA status: proposed

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-12?

Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

• Expires in -3h
• UMA status: proposed

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 12?

Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

• Expires in -2h
• UMA status: proposed

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner

Expires in 2h. UMA dispute is active.

• Expires in 2h
• UMA status: proposed

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Will CA Osasuna vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw?

Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

• Expires in -2h
• UMA status: proposed

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Counter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner

Expires in 0h. UMA dispute is active.

• Expires in 0h
• UMA status: proposed

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-12?

Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

• Expires in -4h
• UMA status: proposed

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-12?

Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

• Expires in -4h
• UMA status: proposed

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Timberwolves vs. Spurs

Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

• Expires in -18h
• Source type: ambiguous

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Sabres vs. Canadiens

Expires in 1h.

• Expires in 1h
• Source type: ambiguous

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Ducks vs. Golden Knights

Expires in 4h.

• Expires in 4h
• Source type: ambiguous

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Cavaliers vs. Pistons

Expires in 6h.

• Expires in 6h
• Source type: ambiguous

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Counter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A

Expires in 2h.

• Expires in 2h

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

Expires in 50h.

• Expires in 50h

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?

Expires in 50h.

• Expires in 50h

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?

Expires in 50h.

• Expires in 50h

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Spread: Spurs (-9.5)

Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

• Expires in -18h

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Spread: Spurs (-10.5)

Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

• Expires in -18h

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?

Expires in 2h.

• Expires in 2h

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B

Expires in 6h.

• Expires in 6h

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Iran closes its airspace by May 15?

Expires in 50h.

• Expires in 50h

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B

Expires in 5h.

• Expires in 5h

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?

Expires in 66h.

• Expires in 66h

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?

Expires in 50h.

• Expires in 50h

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B

Expires in 7h.

• Expires in 7h

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5

Expires in 1h.

• Expires in 1h

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?

Expires in 26h.

• Expires in 26h

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Epstein suicide note released by May 8?

UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

• UMA status: disputed

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Mirra Andreeva

UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

• UMA status: proposed

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Daniil Medvedev

UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

• UMA status: proposed

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026?

UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

• UMA status: proposed

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Oeiras 4: Zdenek Kolar vs Zhizhen Zhang

UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

• UMA status: proposed

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Open resolution ambiguity — verify the source.

• No explicit resolution source

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Open resolution ambiguity — verify the source.

• No explicit resolution source

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Open resolution ambiguity — verify the source.

• No explicit resolution source

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Bill Clinton divorce by June 30?

Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.

• Source type: public figure statement

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only