0x1decc3951f294407a3e1c5fc6f277b7430de0f87
0x1decc3951f294407a3e1c5fc6f277b7430de0f87
Wallet digest
Activity score
91/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
50
Open notional
$2.8K
Total PnL
$30.07
Realised
$8.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 50- NO
Will the Republican Party win the TN-09 House seat?
788 shares @ 18.0¢·now 18.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$145.79
$3.94
- NO
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by July 31?
135 shares @ 81.6¢·now 90.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$121.06
$11.26
- YES
Will the Republican Party win the CO-04 House seat?
198 shares @ 62.0¢·now 61.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$120.70
$-1.93
- NO
Will the Democratic Party win the TN-08 House seat?
131 shares @ 89.7¢·now 89.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$116.22
$-0.94
- NO
Will the Republican Party win the CA-28 House seat?
122 shares @ 90.0¢·now 94.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$114.64
$4.88
- NO
Will the Republican Party win the NY-08 House seat?
116 shares @ 94.4¢·now 94.8¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$110.07
$0.49
- NO
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?
125 shares @ 85.0¢·now 84.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$105.60
$-0.62
- NO
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
134 shares @ 79.0¢·now 77.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$103.27
$-2.68
- NO
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
110 shares @ 90.8¢·now 92.3¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$101.70
$1.65
- YES
Will the Democratic Party win the LA-02 House seat?
104 shares @ 89.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$95.99
$3.63
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 3, 00:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on July 2?$46.94Jul 2, 20:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party win the CO-04 House seat?$3.10Jul 2, 19:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party win the CO-04 House seat?$121.40Jul 2, 19:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?$19.02Jul 2, 19:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party win the KY-04 House seat?$64.61Jul 2, 19:12 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5)$35.81Jul 2, 08:22 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: United States 1 - 2 Bosnia and Herzegovina?$35.89Jul 2, 08:21 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: Senegal (-2.5)$35.92Jul 2, 07:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party win the TN-09 House seat?$146.50Jul 2, 04:38 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 2, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 3?$46.04Jul 2, 00:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 7?$46.09Jul 1, 21:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 3?$46.01Jul 1, 21:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 4?$46.02Jul 1, 21:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?$4.90Jul 1, 21:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Slovakia pass the 2026 referendum question restoring the Office of the Special Prosecutor and National Crime Agency?$46.00Jul 1, 21:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?$20.10Jul 1, 20:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 1?$35.81Jul 1, 20:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on July 1?$35.85Jul 1, 20:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $51.58
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 30, 08:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 3, 00:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.