0x1decc3951f294407a3e1c5fc6f277b7430de0f87
0x1decc3951f294407a3e1c5fc6f277b7430de0f87
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
45
Open notional
$3.1K
Total PnL
$22.58
Realised
$-7.34
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 45- NO
Will the Republican Party win the NY-12 House seat?
169 shares @ 94.2¢·now 99.4¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$167.54
$8.65
- YES
Will the Republican Party win the MO-04 House seat?
180 shares @ 89.8¢·now 92.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$165.22
$3.85
- NO
Will the Republican Party win the AL-07 House seat?
171 shares @ 91.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$161.94
$6.00
- NO
Will the Republican Party win the OR-03 House seat?
169 shares @ 94.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$158.13
$-0.85
- NO
Will the Republican Party win the VA-08 House seat?
166 shares @ 95.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$156.91
$-0.83
- NO
Will the Republican Party win the IL-04 House seat?
166 shares @ 94.2¢·now 94.7¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$156.91
$0.83
- NO
Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year?
166 shares @ 87.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$146.85
$2.49
- YES
Will the Republican Party win the CO-04 House seat?
198 shares @ 62.0¢·now 64.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$126.64
$4.01
- NO
Will the Republican Party win the NY-08 House seat?
116 shares @ 94.4¢·now 95.4¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$110.71
$1.13
- NO
Jonathan Majors as Kang?
120 shares @ 87.4¢·now 92.0¢·exp Dec 18, 2026$110.06
$5.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYNATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?$51.15Aug 16, 23:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 21, 2026?$51.20Aug 16, 23:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Victoria Doyle be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?$51.19Aug 16, 23:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?$49.72Aug 16, 04:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill m0NESY attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?$52.29Aug 15, 13:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Laurence Fox get second place in the Clacton by-election?$51.97Aug 14, 14:31 UTC
- REDEEMUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?$51.00Aug 14, 14:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party win the VA-08 House seat?$158.06Aug 13, 22:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Cuba recognize Israel by December 31?$150.79Aug 13, 22:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill annual inflation be 3.1% or less in July?$20.10Aug 13, 10:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?$50.51Aug 10, 08:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by August 31?$50.47Aug 10, 08:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by August 22?$50.47Aug 10, 08:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill James Fishback win 20–25% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?$39.19Aug 10, 08:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?$33.92Aug 10, 08:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party win the TN-09 House seat?$94.14Aug 7, 17:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Braeden Caley win the 2026 North Vancouver—Capilano by-election?$51.30Aug 7, 16:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill Carnita Atwater win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election?$52.02Aug 7, 09:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill m0NESY attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?$51.29Aug 7, 01:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?$51.28Aug 6, 20:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
16/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $63.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 08:38 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 16, 23:51 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.