Essential-Kid-Itinerary
0x1e49f80d58872139c5da28320d0a3179f5480424
Wallet digest
Activity score
48/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
15
Open notional
$62.73
Total PnL
$-1.9K
Realised
$-326.24
Win rate
0%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- YES
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?
150 shares @ 75.2¢·now 31.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$47.63
$-65.22
- YES
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?
10 shares @ 54.0¢·now 71.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$7.15
$1.75
- YES
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?
148 shares @ 35.1¢·now 4.7¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$6.89
$-45.16
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?
1 shares @ 87.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.06
$0.06
- YES
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 21?
1385 shares @ 80.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.1K
- YES
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
546 shares @ 10.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-57.33
- YES
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?
529 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.00
$-8.58
- NO
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 6 - July 12?
288 shares @ 58.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-168.77
- YES
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?
205 shares @ 27.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$0.00
$-55.65
- NO
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 6 - July 12?
67 shares @ 57.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-38.48
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill there be 3 or more North Korea tests in August 2026?$640.00Aug 20, 12:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be 3 or more North Korea tests in August 2026?$7.30Aug 20, 09:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be 3 or more North Korea tests in August 2026?$73.00Aug 20, 09:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be 3 or more North Korea tests in August 2026?$7.30Aug 20, 09:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be 3 or more North Korea tests in August 2026?$7.30Aug 20, 09:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be 3 or more North Korea tests in August 2026?$372.30Aug 20, 09:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?$415.51Aug 19, 21:30 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$49.02Aug 6, 15:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$38.19Aug 2, 03:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?$36.13Aug 1, 15:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?$22.05Aug 1, 00:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?$25.26Jul 31, 21:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?$30.00Jul 31, 15:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?$39.09Jul 30, 10:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?$75.16Jul 30, 10:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?$1.25Jul 29, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?$1.24Jul 28, 13:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?$1.00Jul 28, 13:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?$1.00Jul 28, 13:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?$1.00Jul 28, 13:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 74/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $64.44
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 25, 13:13 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 20, 12:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.