Probable-Site
0x1e524ff2123d380a690dbdf2245de2a9428e91d6
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
84
Open notional
$3.2K
Total PnL
$-603.46
Realised
$238.70
Win rate
50%
46 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 84- NO
Spain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by August 31?
312 shares @ 80.0¢·now 83.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$258.96
$9.36
- YES
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?
300 shares @ 67.8¢·now 69.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$206.97
$3.58
- NO
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?
1118 shares @ 25.6¢·now 18.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$206.90
$-79.60
- NO
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%?
265 shares @ 74.0¢·now 71.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$189.47
$-6.63
- YES
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?
188 shares @ 87.0¢·now 84.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$158.29
$-5.59
- YES
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
558 shares @ 29.1¢·now 27.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$153.45
$-8.79
- NO
Will July 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?
420 shares @ 36.0¢·now 36.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$153.29
$1.99
- NO
Will Drake be the top artist in the US for 2026?
638 shares @ 30.7¢·now 23.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$149.98
$-46.04
- NO
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the September meeting?
179 shares @ 64.9¢·now 82.5¢·exp Sep 15, 2026$147.91
$31.56
- LOTTE GIANTS
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Samsung Lions
276 shares @ 18.4¢·now 49.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$135.26
$84.55
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?$0.83Jul 31, 23:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 2?$1.18Jul 31, 23:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 2?$79.95Jul 31, 23:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 2?$0.75Jul 31, 23:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 2?$4.51Jul 31, 23:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 31?$0.00Jul 31, 23:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?$0.00Jul 31, 23:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Shamrock Rovers win on 2026-07-31?$0.00Jul 31, 23:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?$0.46Jul 31, 23:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 31?$0.76Jul 31, 23:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on July 31?$0.00Jul 31, 22:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on July 31?$0.00Jul 31, 22:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or below on July 31?$0.00Jul 31, 22:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or below on July 31?$2.21Jul 31, 22:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on July 31?$4.35Jul 31, 22:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on July 31?$126.06Jul 31, 22:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?$0.00Jul 31, 21:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by August 31?$249.60Jul 31, 21:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?$262.08Jul 31, 21:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 31?$0.00Jul 31, 20:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 46 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
11 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
46 closed markets, 50% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 11
- Avg trade size
- $61.94
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 31, 18:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 31, 23:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 46 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.