Young-Bronchitis
0x1e8551c1bb306810eb0d3edb8c45ee8515c88aaa
Wallet digest
Activity score
85/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
118
Open notional
$225.35
Total PnL
$-2.5K
Realised
$678.34
Win rate
78%
32 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 118- YES
Will Israel strike 9 countries in 2026?
3100 shares @ 0.8¢·now 1.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$35.65
$9.87
- YES
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?
357 shares @ 16.8¢·now 9.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$32.13
$-27.87
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?
160 shares @ 29.1¢·now 16.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$26.34
$-20.10
- YES
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
3182 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$23.86
$-11.14
- YES
Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?
210 shares @ 13.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$22.09
$-5.26
- YES
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
300 shares @ 18.0¢·now 6.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$19.80
$-34.20
- YES
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?
222 shares @ 3.1¢·now 6.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$14.10
$7.21
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?
150 shares @ 1.2¢·now 6.8¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$10.17
$8.36
- YES
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
3113 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.78
$-11.37
- YES
Will Hassan Shariatmadari be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
4074 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.11
$-7.54
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill there be between 60 and 80 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?$4.24Jul 28, 00:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be between 60 and 80 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?$2.15Jul 28, 00:27 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 28, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 27, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 26, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 25, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 24, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 23, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 20, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be 80 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?$1.02Jul 18, 20:21 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be 80 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?$1.00Jul 16, 18:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be between 60 and 80 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?$1.00Jul 16, 15:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be 80 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?$0.01Jul 16, 15:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be between 60 and 80 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?$0.04Jul 16, 15:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be between 60 and 80 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?$0.04Jul 16, 14:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
74/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
78% win rate over 32 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 29/100.
32 closed markets, 78% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $3.30
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 15, 00:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:27 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 32 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.