Ill-Informed-Guide-Wasp
0x1e86800b5d0024ff7e00069c814ed671cdce7a03
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
38
Open notional
$32.99
Total PnL
$-94.35
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 38- YES
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?
11 shares @ 98.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$10.94
$0.11
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
573 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.44
$-1.16
- NO
Will Intel (INTC) beat quarterly earnings?
46 shares @ 19.9¢·now 7.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$3.20
$-5.90
- YES
Will Core PCE YoY be 3.9% or more in June?
103 shares @ 3.3¢·now 3.1¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$3.20
$-0.24
- YES
Intel (INTC) Q2 adjusted gross margin (non-GAAP) 44%+?
31 shares @ 16.8¢·now 9.8¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$3.01
$-2.17
- NO
Will Coca-Cola (KO) beat quarterly earnings?
36 shares @ 34.1¢·now 6.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$2.13
$-9.97
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET
3 shares @ 49.0¢·now 64.5¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$1.97
$0.47
- YES
Coca-Cola (KO) Q2 global unit case volume growth 6.5%+?
39 shares @ 6.0¢·now 5.1¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$1.97
$-0.37
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET
3 shares @ 36.0¢·now 35.5¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$1.11
$-0.02
- NO
Will Netflix (NFLX) beat quarterly earnings?
59 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$0.00
$-16.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET$3.06Jul 23, 12:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET$1.18Jul 23, 12:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET$1.55Jul 23, 12:09 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET$3.06Jul 23, 12:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET$1.18Jul 23, 12:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET$1.55Jul 23, 11:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET$1.18Jul 23, 11:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET$1.55Jul 23, 11:40 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET$0.03Jul 23, 09:58 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET$3.06Jul 23, 09:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET$1.56Jul 23, 09:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET$1.18Jul 23, 09:42 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET$3.06Jul 23, 09:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET$1.55Jul 23, 09:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET$1.18Jul 23, 09:17 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET$3.06Jul 23, 09:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET$1.55Jul 23, 09:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET$1.18Jul 23, 09:03 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET$3.06Jul 23, 09:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET$1.55Jul 23, 08:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $1.51
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 19, 23:45 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 12:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.