Probable-Trail
0x1f290170fff837b34388b5cccfcf17adadf6afd5
Wallet digest
Activity score
52/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
93
Open notional
$13.71
Total PnL
$-2.1K
Realised
$-138.69
Win rate
25%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 93- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
40 shares @ 13.0¢·now 14.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.80
$0.60
- NO
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
10 shares @ 52.0¢·now 50.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$4.88
$-0.12
- NO
Trump out as President before GTA VI?
6 shares @ 49.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.03
$0.03
- YES
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?
78365 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-209.86
- YES
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?
667 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
Solana Up or Down - December 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 22, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - December 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET
272 shares @ 73.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 20, 2025$0.00
$-200.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - December 20, 5PM ET
251 shares @ 95.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 20, 2025$0.00
$-240.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 12PM ET
222 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 18, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- UP
Solana Up or Down - December 28, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET
218 shares @ 82.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 28, 2025$0.00
$-180.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?$2.99Mar 14, 19:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?$30.81Mar 14, 19:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?$2.00Mar 1, 02:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire by March 6?$2.00Mar 1, 02:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)?$9.68Feb 28, 19:50 UTC
- REDEEMUS strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?$12.50Feb 28, 19:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?$33.26Feb 28, 19:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by March 31?$1.00Feb 28, 07:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Khamenei leave Iran by December 31?$2.20Feb 28, 07:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?$3.40Feb 28, 07:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026?$1.34Feb 28, 07:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?$3.00Feb 28, 07:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026?$1.00Feb 28, 07:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$4.20Feb 22, 07:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?$1.00Feb 22, 07:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?$1.00Feb 22, 07:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?$1.00Feb 22, 07:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?$1.00Feb 22, 07:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?$1.00Feb 22, 07:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?$1.00Feb 22, 07:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $2.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 18, 21:30 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 14, 19:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".