Sweltering-Modification
0x1f3f1083aabd8b9b2601e923840e92c61201e1ab
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
21
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-239.63
Realised
$0.56
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- YES
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
1364 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026$0.00
$-5.86
- YES
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
1296 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
546 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026$0.00
$-6.42
- YES
Will António José Seguro win less than 12% of votes in the first round?
469 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will António José Seguro win the second round by at least 50%?
231 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win between 10% and 12% of votes in the first round?
214 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will António José Seguro win 4th place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
193 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win more than 22% of votes in the first round?
167 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will António José Seguro win between 12% and 14% of votes in the first round?
161 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?$40.73May 30, 15:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 20?$10.00Mar 20, 13:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 20?$20.00Mar 20, 13:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 13?$10.00Mar 13, 08:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 13?$20.00Mar 12, 20:38 UTC
- REDEEMS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 20?$40.00Feb 21, 09:13 UTC
- REDEEMS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 9?$62.78Feb 21, 09:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 20?$20.00Feb 20, 14:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 9?$11.90Feb 8, 23:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 9?$10.00Feb 8, 18:55 UTC
- REDEEMS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 20?$0.00Feb 8, 18:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?$0.00Feb 8, 18:55 UTC
- REDEEMS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 20?$20.00Feb 8, 18:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?$32.79Feb 8, 18:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill António José Seguro win the second round by at least 50%?$5.00Jan 25, 16:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill António José Seguro win the second round by at least 50%?$1.00Jan 24, 16:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?$10.00Jan 23, 21:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?$1.00Jan 18, 21:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?$0.42Jan 18, 21:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?$10.00Jan 18, 20:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $7.45
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 8, 19:57 UTC
- Last active
- May 30, 15:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.