Tragic-Sediment
0x1f61ff733357f23653114efbaf1a2a2384730dea
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$627.46
Total PnL
$-2.8K
Realised
$-36.49
Win rate
0%
122 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on August 12?
55 shares @ 91.6¢·now 91.5¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$49.94
$-0.06
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on August 12?
52 shares @ 97.0¢·now 96.5¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$49.74
$-0.26
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on August 12?
53 shares @ 94.5¢·now 93.5¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$49.46
$-0.54
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on August 12?
55 shares @ 91.1¢·now 84.5¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$46.40
$-3.60
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on August 12?
42 shares @ 96.0¢·now 98.5¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$41.04
$1.04
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 12?
49 shares @ 91.3¢·now 82.5¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$40.62
$-4.34
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on August 12?
43 shares @ 94.0¢·now 93.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$39.57
$-0.43
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on August 12?
41 shares @ 96.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$39.46
$-0.21
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on August 12?
42 shares @ 91.7¢·now 95.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$39.45
$1.36
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on August 12?
42 shares @ 95.6¢·now 93.7¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$39.20
$-0.79
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on August 12?$40.12Aug 12, 11:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on August 12?$9.62Aug 12, 11:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on August 12?$40.17Aug 12, 11:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on August 12?$6.62Aug 12, 11:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on August 12?$40.12Aug 12, 10:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on August 12?$18.71Aug 12, 10:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 12?$35.10Aug 12, 10:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on August 12?$7.39Aug 12, 10:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on August 12?$40.06Aug 12, 09:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on August 12?$10.01Aug 12, 09:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on August 12?$40.16Aug 12, 09:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on August 12?$29.72Aug 12, 09:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on August 12?$10.02Aug 12, 09:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on August 12?$28.21Aug 12, 09:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on August 12?$40.16Aug 12, 09:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 12?$10.03Aug 12, 09:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on August 12?$10.04Aug 12, 09:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 12?$5.60Aug 12, 09:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on August 12?$10.05Aug 12, 09:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on August 12?$7.39Aug 12, 09:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
61/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 122 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
122 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $19.63
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 11, 21:43 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 12, 11:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 122 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.