Close-Tail
0x1f8094487790d3c1a015a2dfaeeb34c9597614cd
Wallet digest
Activity score
47/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
21
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-2.5K
Realised
$426.26
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- YES
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
8500 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-212.50
- YES
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
5750 shares @ 8.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-500.25
- YES
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025?
5000 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-170.65
- YES
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025?
3184 shares @ 11.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-354.57
- YES
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
2500 shares @ 5.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-137.28
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?
2145 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 17, 2025$0.00
$-40.76
- YES
Will Powell say "Iran" during March press conference?
1500 shares @ 29.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-449.00
- NO
Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 20+ times during September press conference?
600 shares @ 9.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 17, 2025$0.00
$-59.00
- YES
Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during December press conference?
551 shares @ 12.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$0.00
$-69.55
- YES
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?
323 shares @ 62.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-200.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 16, 00:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$455.76Jul 15, 03:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$430.62Jul 15, 03:28 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 14, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 13, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 12, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 11, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.12Jul 10, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.12Jul 9, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 8, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 7, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 6, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 5, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 4, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 3, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 2, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 1, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jun 30, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jun 29, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
14 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 14
- Avg trade size
- $209.75
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 18, 18:54 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 16, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.