Thin-Gratitude
0x1fc46eb3939bb1f77698d326609586e4daa17ae7
Wallet digest
Activity score
43/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
145
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-4.8K
Realised
$-238.39
Win rate
33%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 145- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 7?
8070 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-10.76
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 21?
5099 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026$0.00
$-9.38
- YES
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
5000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 21?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 15?
1737 shares @ 7.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-135.59
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 1?
1480 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-46.37
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 7?
1100 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.10
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 14?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 14?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 25?
1000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 25?$0.15Jul 25, 09:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 25?$9.52Jul 25, 05:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 25?$23.19Jul 25, 05:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 25?$43.24Jul 25, 05:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 25?$21.24Jul 25, 05:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 25?$43.53Jul 25, 05:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 25?$7.85Jul 25, 05:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 25?$11.69Jul 25, 05:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 25?$18.75Jul 25, 05:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 25?$36.57Jul 25, 05:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 25?$76.20Jul 25, 05:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 25?$7.85Jul 25, 05:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 25?$1.70Jul 25, 05:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 25?$123.02Jul 25, 05:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 25?$12.99Jul 25, 05:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 25?$17.14Jul 25, 05:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 25?$19.25Jul 25, 05:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 25?$0.89Jul 25, 04:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 25?$24.61Jul 25, 04:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 25?$14.67Jul 25, 04:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
43/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $19.83
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 13:55 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 09:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.