Quixotic-Feed
0x1fc9776b33c40adf0ef9c1287d2810766dd1ace5
Wallet digest
Activity score
85/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$374.38
Total PnL
$-1.2K
Realised
$183.52
Win rate
74%
126 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
2522 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$18.91
$-6.30
- YES
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
582 shares @ 1.0¢·now 2.9¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$17.18
$11.56
- YES
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
32072 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$16.04
$-48.11
- YES
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election?
10402 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.1¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$15.60
$-45.20
- YES
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election?
10334 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.1¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$15.50
$-46.50
- YES
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026?
30000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$15.00
$-45.00
- YES
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election?
8128 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$12.19
$-52.20
- YES
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
468 shares @ 2.1¢·now 2.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$11.88
$1.82
- YES
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
423 shares @ 2.3¢·now 2.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$10.74
$1.01
- YES
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
474 shares @ 2.4¢·now 2.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$10.66
$-0.62
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.03Jul 28, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 27, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 26, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 25, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 24, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 23, 00:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?$0.48Jul 22, 08:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?$0.18Jul 22, 07:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude go down 12+ times in July?$1.68Jul 22, 07:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?$0.26Jul 22, 05:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$0.96Jul 22, 04:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$1.16Jul 22, 04:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$0.78Jul 22, 04:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$1.40Jul 22, 04:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?$0.15Jul 22, 04:58 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 22, 00:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$13.14Jul 21, 11:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$9.32Jul 21, 11:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Malaysia recognize Israel by December 31?$0.12Jul 21, 11:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Malaysia recognize Israel by December 31?$0.75Jul 21, 11:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
74/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
74% win rate over 126 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
32 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.
126 closed markets, 74% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $3.32
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 10, 08:08 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 126 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.