Smoggy-Scaffold-Email
0x1fcdc16de6b3e9d32bbbd78d24a8b516d4a404b3
Wallet digest
Activity score
56/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
117
Open notional
$167.12
Total PnL
$-119.38
Realised
$0.11
Win rate
10%
59 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 117- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on August 20?
158 shares @ 1.9¢·now 23.2¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$36.60
$33.60
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?
1000 shares @ 3.0¢·now 2.9¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$29.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on August 21?
269 shares @ 3.7¢·now 10.0¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$26.93
$16.93
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 20?
95 shares @ 10.5¢·now 27.6¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$26.24
$16.24
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on August 20?
514 shares @ 0.4¢·now 4.2¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$21.58
$19.58
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on August 20?
345 shares @ 2.9¢·now 1.6¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$5.52
$-4.48
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on August 20?
207 shares @ 3.4¢·now 2.6¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$5.49
$-1.51
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 20?
294 shares @ 1.7¢·now 1.7¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$4.85
$-0.15
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 20?
833 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.4¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$3.75
$-6.25
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on August 20?
143 shares @ 2.8¢·now 2.6¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$3.71
$-0.29
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?$32.04Aug 19, 21:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on August 20?$10.68Aug 19, 21:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 20?$5.34Aug 19, 21:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on August 20?$4.27Aug 19, 20:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on August 21?$10.67Aug 19, 20:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,850 on August 19?$2.14Aug 19, 20:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on August 20?$2.14Aug 19, 20:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on August 20?$2.14Aug 19, 20:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on August 20?$3.21Aug 19, 20:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$2.44Aug 19, 20:15 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$11.84Aug 19, 20:13 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$0.00Aug 19, 20:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$4.20Aug 19, 20:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$0.59Aug 19, 20:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$1.89Aug 19, 20:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$0.01Aug 19, 20:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$1.17Aug 19, 20:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$0.54Aug 19, 20:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$3.50Aug 19, 20:05 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET$10.00Aug 19, 20:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
10% win rate over 59 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
59 closed markets, 10% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $8.82
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 19, 15:14 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 19, 21:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 59 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.