Quaint-Pollution
0x1fe9d4435d801c3ed7163a1189889885b1eb33e1
Wallet digest
Activity score
81/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$11.45
Total PnL
$-25.25
Realised
$6.75
Win rate
100%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Kim Jong Un be the next leader out before 2027?
50 shares @ 0.6¢·now 1.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.97
$0.68
- YES
Will Clémentine Autain advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
50 shares @ 0.6¢·now 1.3¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$0.63
$0.33
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on August 12?
50 shares @ 0.6¢·now 1.2¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$0.60
$0.30
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on August 11?
50 shares @ 0.9¢·now 1.1¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$0.57
$0.13
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on August 11?
50 shares @ 0.3¢·now 1.1¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$0.57
$0.42
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on August 11?
50 shares @ 0.9¢·now 1.1¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$0.55
$0.10
- YES
Will Chelsea Clinton announce a Presidential run before 2027?
50 shares @ 0.6¢·now 1.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.53
$0.23
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 11?
50 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.9¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$0.47
$0.17
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on August 11?
50 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.9¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$0.45
$0.25
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on August 11?
50 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.7¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$0.35
$0.15
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 11?$0.10Aug 10, 12:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on August 10?$0.37Aug 10, 11:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 11?$0.15Aug 10, 11:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 37°C on August 11?$0.05Aug 10, 11:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 37°C on August 11?$0.04Aug 10, 11:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 11?$1.05Aug 10, 11:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on August 11?$0.18Aug 10, 11:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on August 10?$0.24Aug 10, 11:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 11?$0.30Aug 10, 11:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on August 10?$0.01Aug 10, 11:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 37°C on August 11?$0.41Aug 10, 10:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 37°C on August 11?$0.01Aug 10, 10:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C on August 11?$0.02Aug 10, 10:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 37°C on August 11?$0.22Aug 10, 10:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 11?$0.72Aug 10, 10:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 38°C on August 11?$0.08Aug 10, 10:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 37°C on August 11?$0.06Aug 10, 10:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 38°C on August 11?$0.02Aug 10, 10:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on August 11?$0.03Aug 10, 10:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on August 11?$0.05Aug 10, 10:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
38/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.15
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 10, 08:24 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 10, 12:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.