Flimsy-Dueling
0x203de766da3dffa6f988594407c81941fbe3fb42
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
35
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-642.69
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 35- YES
Will Vietnam vs. Bangladesh end in a draw?
577 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 26, 2026$0.00
$-98.07
- YES
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 9 - 15 be between 14,000,000 and 14,500,000?
296 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$0.00
$-4.15
- OVER
DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 4.5
288 shares @ 22.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-63.46
- YES
Will Chill With You: Lo-fi Story win Sit Back and Relax in the 2025 Steam Awards?
285 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 3, 2026$0.00
$-9.82
- AARHUS GF
Spread: Aarhus GF (-1.5)
238 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 6, 2026$0.00
$-57.18
- YES
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win between 12% and 14% of votes in the first round?
226 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-20.37
- NO
Will Ethereum reach $3700 in July?
219 shares @ 79.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2025$0.00
$-172.86
- YES
Will Palantir (PLTR) close at $158-$160 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 23 – Mar 27?
213 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-36.23
- YES
Will the price of XRP be greater than $2.50 on January 10?
167 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 10, 2026$0.00
$-20.05
- YES
Will Oman join the Abraham Accords in 2025?
159 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.49
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 2?$18.28Jul 3, 07:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June?$33.82Jul 2, 03:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 2?$16.63Jun 28, 02:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June?$16.27Jun 27, 15:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June?$9.51Jun 27, 14:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June?$6.62Jun 27, 14:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 26?$16.23Jun 27, 11:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 26?$18.28Jun 27, 11:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 26?$17.26Jun 23, 13:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 26?$5.74Jun 23, 12:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 26?$10.26Jun 23, 12:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google (GOOGL) close at $320-$325 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 20 – Apr 24?$530.79Apr 25, 11:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google (GOOGL) close at $320-$325 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 20 – Apr 24?$472.40Apr 20, 02:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Aalesunds FK vs. Fredrikstad FK end in a draw?$803.02Apr 9, 10:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Aarhus GF (-1.5)$57.18Apr 3, 09:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Aalesunds FK vs. Fredrikstad FK end in a draw?$594.23Apr 1, 18:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,800-$6,900 in March?$648.04Apr 1, 18:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,800-$6,900 in March?$576.76Mar 26, 10:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYFight to Go the Distance?$20.85Mar 25, 17:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,800 March 23-29?$3.67Mar 25, 09:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $122.98
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 12, 16:07 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 3, 07:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.