Wallet digest

active

Activity score

18/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-415.53

Realised

$-89.33

Win rate

60 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 4, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 8, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET
25 shares @ 48.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026
$0.00
$-11.99
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 5, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET
20 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET
20 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 4, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET
20 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - July 4, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET
17 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET
13 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 4, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$1.77Aug 4, 21:45 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 2, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET$0.00Aug 3, 10:19 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 2, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET$0.00Aug 3, 10:17 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 1, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$0.00Aug 3, 10:15 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 30, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET$0.00Aug 3, 10:14 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 30, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET$0.00Aug 3, 10:13 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 30, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$0.00Aug 3, 10:11 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 30, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET$0.00Aug 3, 10:10 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET$0.00Aug 3, 10:09 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET$0.00Aug 3, 10:08 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET$0.00Aug 3, 10:07 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$0.00Aug 3, 10:06 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 24, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET$0.00Aug 3, 10:04 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET$0.00Aug 3, 10:03 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET$0.00Aug 3, 10:01 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$0.00Aug 3, 10:00 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET$0.00Aug 3, 09:59 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET$0.00Aug 3, 09:58 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET$0.00Aug 3, 09:57 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET$0.00Aug 3, 09:56 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

63/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 60 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

1 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

60 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity36 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry57 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk24 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 1
Avg trade size: $1.77
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Aug 3, 09:11 UTC
Last active: Aug 4, 21:45 UTC
Win rate sample: 60 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 19:04:24 UTC·src:Polymarket Data