Wallet digest

active

Activity score

88/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$2.3K

Total PnL

$-4.4K

Realised

$5.3K

Win rate

84%

116 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

DOWN
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 28?
749 shares @ 67.3¢·now 98.5¢·exp Jul 28, 2026
$737.14
$232.85
UP
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 28?
554 shares @ 75.6¢·now 84.5¢·exp Jul 28, 2026
$467.96
$49.12
YES
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on July 28?
350 shares @ 89.9¢·now 98.5¢·exp Jul 28, 2026
$344.57
$29.98
DOWN
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on July 28?
209 shares @ 74.2¢·now 96.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026
$200.62
$45.53
UP
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on July 28?
182 shares @ 70.2¢·now 97.5¢·exp Jul 28, 2026
$177.23
$49.63
DOWN
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on July 28?
144 shares @ 70.7¢·now 95.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026
$136.80
$35.00
NO
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on July 28?
130 shares @ 90.6¢·now 92.4¢·exp Jul 28, 2026
$120.12
$2.31
DOWN
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 28?
474 shares @ 34.7¢·now 15.5¢·exp Jul 28, 2026
$73.48
$-90.97
NO
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on July 28?
104 shares @ 67.6¢·now 27.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026
$27.95
$-42.05
UP
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 28?
698 shares @ 41.7¢·now 1.6¢·exp Jul 28, 2026
$10.81
$-280.19

Recent activity

TRADEBUYNatural Gas (NG) Up or Down on July 28?$41.80Jul 28, 16:05 UTC
TRADEBUYSPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 28?$174.00Jul 28, 15:51 UTC
TRADEBUYSPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 28?$22.00Jul 28, 15:51 UTC
TRADEBUYSPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 28?$61.03Jul 28, 15:26 UTC
TRADEBUYSPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 28?$44.33Jul 28, 15:25 UTC
TRADEBUYSPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 28?$3.33Jul 28, 15:24 UTC
TRADEBUYSPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 28?$4.56Jul 28, 15:22 UTC
TRADEBUYApple (AAPL) Up or Down on July 28?$2.85Jul 28, 15:22 UTC
TRADEBUYTesla (TSLA) Up or Down on July 28?$39.16Jul 28, 15:19 UTC
TRADEBUYApple (AAPL) Up or Down on July 28?$1.32Jul 28, 15:14 UTC
TRADEBUYGoogle (GOOGL) Up or Down on July 28?$19.75Jul 28, 15:13 UTC
TRADEBUYSPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 28?$124.00Jul 28, 15:12 UTC
TRADEBUYGoogle (GOOGL) Up or Down on July 28?$11.85Jul 28, 15:01 UTC
TRADEBUYMicrosoft (MSFT) Up or Down on July 28?$40.50Jul 28, 14:59 UTC
TRADEBUYMicrosoft (MSFT) Up or Down on July 28?$33.09Jul 28, 14:54 UTC
TRADEBUYSPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 28?$1.60Jul 28, 14:53 UTC
TRADEBUYSPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 28?$3.00Jul 28, 14:51 UTC
TRADEBUYSPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 28?$3.00Jul 28, 14:51 UTC
TRADEBUYTesla (TSLA) Up or Down on July 28?$41.54Jul 28, 14:45 UTC
TRADEBUYGoogle (GOOGL) Up or Down on July 28?$2.45Jul 28, 14:32 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

74/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

84% win rate over 116 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

116 closed markets, 84% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity73 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry22 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk39 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 50
Avg trade size: $23.12
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 28, 11:22 UTC
Last active: Jul 28, 16:05 UTC
Win rate sample: 116 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 16:37:11 UTC·src:Polymarket Data