Rosy-Baker
0x206181ab4e7f7572a9ac630c323cc829e4e73400
Wallet digest
Activity score
40/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
62
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-576.17
Realised
$-53.78
Win rate
25%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 62- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on December 27?
5500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 27, 2025$0.00
$-12.99
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on December 27?
3849 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 27, 2025$0.00
$-27.32
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 1?
707 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-5.04
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 16?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on December 27?
500 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 27, 2025$0.00
$-55.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on December 27?
466 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 27, 2025$0.00
$-1.87
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on January 31?
434 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.58
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 31?
340 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.02
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 18?
338 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.55
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 3?
337 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 3, 2026$0.00
$-5.53
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?$0.00Feb 12, 06:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?$0.43Feb 11, 16:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?$1.00Feb 11, 16:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?$2.60Feb 11, 16:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $700b on February 28?$2.40Feb 11, 16:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $700b on February 28?$2.22Feb 10, 11:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?$0.00Feb 10, 03:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?$1.95Feb 9, 13:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?$4.21Feb 8, 23:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?$1.44Feb 8, 23:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?$4.95Feb 7, 15:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?$1.05Feb 7, 12:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?$3.48Feb 7, 01:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?$0.49Feb 7, 01:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?$1.00Feb 6, 21:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?$2.05Feb 6, 19:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?$2.30Feb 6, 16:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?$1.50Feb 6, 16:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?$2.20Feb 6, 16:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?$9.94Feb 6, 16:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
33/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $2.03
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 31, 07:32 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 12, 06:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.