Meaty-Bike
0x208cdcf536aac4c8487ed5959d6c324883021654
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
27
Open notional
$22.97
Total PnL
$-46.58
Realised
$-6.48
Win rate
33%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 27- NO
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by September 30?
16 shares @ 69.0¢·now 63.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$9.94
$-0.95
- NO
Will the Labour Party win 40-44 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
8 shares @ 72.0¢·now 70.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2026$5.69
$-0.12
- NO
Will Minnesota Lynx win the 2026 WNBA Finals?
8 shares @ 64.0¢·now 59.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$4.86
$-0.41
- NO
Will the Democratic Party win the NV-01 House seat?
24 shares @ 10.0¢·now 10.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2026$2.40
$0.00
- YES
Will Justin Story be the Republican nominee for FL-09?
12 shares @ 7.3¢·now 0.8¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$0.09
$-0.79
- NO
Will Club ABB win on 2026-05-17?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET
10 shares @ 44.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$0.00
$-4.45
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET
10 shares @ 43.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$0.00
$-4.35
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET
6 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET
6 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- MAKER_REBATE$4.69Jul 29, 00:45 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET$15.13Jul 28, 21:15 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$22.12Jul 28, 21:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET$3.45Jul 28, 21:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET$3.50Jul 28, 21:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$4.50Jul 28, 21:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$4.40Jul 28, 21:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET$1.70Jul 28, 21:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET$1.83Jul 28, 21:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$1.62Jul 28, 21:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$2.55Jul 28, 21:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET$0.09Jul 28, 21:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET$3.45Jul 28, 21:01 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET$25.00Jul 28, 21:01 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET$25.00Jul 28, 21:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET$1.35Jul 28, 21:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$3.90Jul 28, 21:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$3.03Jul 28, 21:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$0.91Jul 28, 21:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$1.68Jul 28, 21:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $2.30
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 20:48 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.