Beneficial-Haze
0x2097f6cf5cf8bc79a76a713f0e0d6f1aaf24fe91
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$243.20
Total PnL
$-6.9K
Realised
$-320.50
Win rate
11%
156 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $1.10T on August 31?
1304 shares @ 8.4¢·now 7.3¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$95.82
$-14.20
- YES
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.00T and $1.10T on August 31?
891 shares @ 10.3¢·now 7.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$67.27
$-24.63
- NO
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on August 31?
53 shares @ 50.0¢·now 41.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$22.00
$-4.51
- YES
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $700B and $800B on August 31?
59 shares @ 16.9¢·now 16.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$9.77
$-0.23
- YES
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $900B and $1.00T on August 31?
61 shares @ 15.6¢·now 14.2¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$8.73
$-0.84
- YES
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $600B and $700B on August 31?
179 shares @ 5.0¢·now 4.3¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$7.68
$-1.25
- YES
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
412 shares @ 1.7¢·now 1.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.32
$-2.68
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
56 shares @ 9.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.61
$-1.39
- YES
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $600B on August 31?
105 shares @ 4.6¢·now 3.4¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$3.52
$-1.36
- YES
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
429 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$2.79
$-0.21
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.00T and $1.10T on August 31?$1.80Aug 19, 20:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk’s net worth be between $900B and $1.00T on August 31?$5.97Aug 19, 18:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.00T and $1.10T on August 31?$3.65Aug 19, 18:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.00T and $1.10T on August 31?$0.44Aug 19, 18:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.00T and $1.10T on August 31?$0.79Aug 19, 17:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on August 31?$15.30Aug 19, 17:11 UTC
- SPLITWill Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on August 31?$30.00Aug 19, 17:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk’s net worth be between $900B and $1.00T on August 31?$20.37Aug 19, 17:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $1.10T on August 31?$2.67Aug 19, 17:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk’s net worth be between $600B and $700B on August 31?$2.75Aug 19, 17:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk’s net worth be between $900B and $1.00T on August 31?$3.33Aug 19, 16:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.00T and $1.10T on August 31?$6.11Aug 19, 02:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk’s net worth be between $900B and $1.00T on August 31?$34.40Aug 19, 02:55 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 19, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.00T and $1.10T on August 31?$5.01Aug 18, 12:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $1.10T on August 31?$0.68Aug 18, 12:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $1.10T on August 31?$0.68Aug 18, 12:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.00T and $1.10T on August 31?$2.24Aug 18, 12:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $1.10T on August 31?$0.67Aug 18, 12:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.00T and $1.10T on August 31?$2.35Aug 18, 12:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
11% win rate over 156 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
156 closed markets, 11% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $4.80
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 18, 10:16 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 19, 20:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 156 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.